Capacity Planning Of Microgrid Based On Multi-strategy Set Evolution Game Of Bounded Rationality Decision

Rapid social development has introduced problems such as energy shortages and environmental pollution,At the same time,due to the disadvantages of the long-distance transmission of energy also greatly limits the efficiency of energy utilization,the clean energy supply Microgrid System has developed rapidly in recent years.and the demand for energy sources such as heating and cooling has increased along with the demand for electricity.Therefore,it is important to carry out scientific and effective micro-energy network capacity planning.Under the traditional power demand,micro electric grid research has become mainstream,but with the increasing demand for energy such as heating and cooling and the concept of energy interconnection,a new type of Micro Energy Grid(MEG)with multi-energy complementarity as a new microgrid has also received widespread attention.Under the new energy pattern,starting from the research of single-supply micro electric grid planning,it is of great significance to plan the multi-energy complementary MEG further scientifically and effectively.The capacity planning of the microgrid is affected by many factors,such as different investment subjects,energy markets,environmental benefits,and investment economics.The results of ignoring these influencing factors directly on the microgrid planning are not in line with the actual project.At the same time,there are interactions between different considerations and stakeholders,and planning approaches that do not consider interactions among them will not only affect the economics of the operation of the microgrid,but will also deviate greatly from the planning results.In addition,in the game theory that studies the interactions between stakeholders,the traditional game assumes the concept of fully rational decision-making by participants,and the analysis of the microgrid capacity planning scenario is ideal.To address the above problems,firstly,based on the evolutionary game mathematical ideas,the dynamics of participants,strategy sets,payment functions,and replicators,a multi-strategy set evolutionary game model that considers participants’ limited rationality is established,and a multi-strategy solution is proposed.The method of the set evolution stable strategy is proposed,and a multi-strategy set evolutionary game theory planning analysis method is proposed.At the same time,the timing characteristics and operating characteristics of key equipment in the microgrid are fully analyzed.Secondly,based on the multi-strategy set evolutionary game planning analysis method and the operating characteristics of the equipment to be planned,the multi-investment investment microgrid scenario is extensively analyzed to plan the capacity of the optical-storage microgrid.This scenario was established to minimize the operating costs and internal economic benefits of microgrid operators,as well as the minimum total economic payment of distribution grid operators’ investment in microgrid costs,distribution network losses,delays in distribution network upgrade costs,and revenues from the sale and purchase of electricity.The participant payment function model is used to analyze evolutionary and stable strategies through the idea of limited rational decision-making.The practical systen examples combined with non-game,traditional game,and evolutionary game comparison experiments prove that the evolutionary game method has a better effect on balancing the benefits of microgrid operators and distribution network operators.Finally,base on the study of microgrid and to further expand the evolutionary game planning scenario of the optical storage microgrid,considering the difficulty in balancing the conflicted relationship between the economy and the environment in the planning of MEGs as well as the impact of uncertain energy prices on MEG planning,a method that considers the energy is proposed.This model establishes a dual layer consisting of an upper layer of the economic and environmental planning layer based on the participant’s bounded rational multi-strategy set evolution game,and a lower layer that considers the MEG operator-user leader-follower Stackelberg game.Based on the energy hub theory of the MEG,a multi-energy coupling matrix that includes electricity,gas,heating,and cooling for the MEG is established.By performing simulations,it is proven that the proposed economic environment double-layer game planning model considers the dynamic energy pricing strategy,and considers both the dynamic energy pricing and the economic environment,reduces the total planning cost,improves the energy utilization efficiency,and reduces environmental pollution.