Analysis On Economy Of Centralized Photovoltaic Power Generation In China

Recent years,climate change,as a major challenge facing by sustainable development of human society,has raised a wide range of concerns from the international community.The development of clean energy has become a common choice to cope with climate change.In clean energy,the solar energy is the most widely distributed.At the same time,it has the advantages of cleanliness and low carbon.In addition,the photovoltaic technology is very mature now,and the cost of photovoltaic power is also declining.Therefore,it has been strongly supported by the government and has developed rapidly.The studying of economy of photovoltaic generation in China,which will help to grasp the current economic status of it in different aspects and understand the real cost of photovoltaic generation,so as to provide strong support for future investment decisions and layout of photovoltaic power plants.According to the results of economic analysis this paper put forward some reasonable policy suggestionsThis paper constructs photovoltaic power generation levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)model,calculates the photovoltaic power generation LCOE of 25 provinces in 2016 under the benchmark scenario,compares the photovoltaic generation economy in different regions,and analyzes the reasons for the different LCOE in different regions It was found that although the five northwestern provinces’ light resources are in good condition,but resource advantage has not been reflected as a result the solar power curtailment problem;Second resources have the advantage in economy due to the well-consumption,sufficient peak regulation capacity,and no solar power curtailment problem;Because of the influence of resource conditions and weather conditions,the economic situation of third resources is not ideal;Compared with the photovoltaic projects in general,the leader projects have the advantage of electricity cost.In this paper,three most notable factors which has great influence on LCOE of centralized photovoltaic will be evaluated through sensitivity analysis,these factors contain unit costs,utilization time and financing cost.It shows that utilization time is the most sensitive factor to LCOE,while financing cost is the least one,and unit costs is between them.The three factors have greater improvement space in future,and can be the driving force of the future LCOE decline in photovoltaic power generation.Three scenes(optimism,neutrality,and pessimism)of China’s photovoltaic power generation at the end of 13th Five-Year were established.This paper analyzes the 2020 sale side parity target possibilities and challenges.At the same time,this paper calculates the cost needed to realize the parity of the power generation side,and looks forward to the parity of the power generation side.Finally,according to the results of economic analysis and the problems faced by China’s photovoltaic power generation,four policy recommendations to promote the development of photovoltaic power and reduce costs in China are put forward.