Dynamic Estimation And Analysis On Output Elasticity Of Expressway Capital Stock

As the main force in the integrated transportation system,the transportation capability of expressway is extremely strong,it plays a decisive role in promoting the economic development of the region along the route,optimizing the industrial layout of the surrounding areas and achieving cross-regional economic cooperation.It is estimated by scholar related that the investment by RMB 1 in expressway construction will increase the value of Gross Domestic Product about RMB 3,which means the speed and quality of construction will not only reflect the development level of China's transportation and cross-regional accessibility,but also reflect the overall level of economic development to some extent in China.Expressway is the key area of national fixed asset investment.The study of capital stock on expressway and its output elasticity are the basis for clarifying the output efficiency of capital from it.Based on the theory of factor productivity and the analytical tools of Perpetual Inventory Method and State-Space Model,this paper estimates the output elasticity on expressway capital stock in China and analyzes the results estimated.Specifically,the capital stock of expressway is measured,and the State Space Model is constructed based on Translog Production Function to estimate the dynamic value of output elasticity,in the model estimation section,the confidence interval is introduced to enhance the estimation accuracy of the adaptive Kalman Filter Method based on variance compensated,and the estimation accuracy and effectiveness are compared with that of the standard Kalman Filter Method from the perspectives of model's goodness of fit,prediction residual,posterior difference ratio and small error frequency,at the same time,the rationality of the estimation results are elaborated,and finally the results on estimation analysis show that the output elasticity of the expressway capital stock is overall low,and the reasons of which are sought from the perspectives of input and output,and the measures for improving the output elasticity of the expressway capital stock are given.The research results show that: Firstly,during the period from 1988 to 2016,the capital stock of expressway in the base period is 1.657 billion yuan,and the capital stock in the final period is 134.963 billion yuan,and there are two fluctuations in the period,which showssteady growth in three phases appearing every 10 years,and the rapid growth between the three stages;Secondly,the output elasticity values of capital factor,labor factor,and technical factor are located respectively in the ranges of 0.179 to 0.363,0.186 to 0.297,and 0.128 to0.472,the output elasticity of each factor increases year-by-year spirally,and the output efficiency gradually improves,but the output efficiency is low overall;Thirdly,the economic effect on output of China's expressway capital stock factor is not ideal,the reasons are mainly due to the large capital expenditure and small profit space,based on it,the measures to enhance technological innovation and appropriately adjust the charging standards are provided for a basis of capital management on expressway.