Study On The Capital Stock Of Toll Road And Its Output Elasticity Estimation

As a basic data material,capital stock is often used as a key index to measure input and output as well as technology,labor and other production factors.Accurate measurement of capital stock of toll road is the premise for studying the relationship between toll road and economic development.At present,there are few calculation on the capital stock of toll road,based on this,this paper draws the research results of relevant literatures at home and abroad,and on the basis of reasonably defining the concept of the capital stock of toll road,using the idea of perpetual inventory method,estimates the capital stock of toll road in 2013-2016,and uses the stock data to estimate the output elasticity of the toll road.On this basis,we calculate and compare the marginal output of toll road and evaluate the stock scale of toll road.First of all,the paper combs and selects the key indexes such as capital stock,annual investment flow,price index and depreciation rate in the perpetual inventory method,combined with the characteristics of toll road industry,reconstruct the framework applicable to the calculation of the capital stock of toll road,the calculation of the capital stock of toll road is completed by using the capital stock of the base year,the new construction capital flows over the years and the new expansion capital flows over the years.Based on that,the national and provincial capital stock data of toll road from 2013 to 2016 was calculated.The capital stock of national toll road in 2013-2016 was 31,195.4 billion yuan,35,085.2 billion yuan,40,166.2 billion yuan and 43,614.5 billion yuan(2013 price).The conclusions are as follows: The capital stock of toll road in each province is not positively correlated with the mileage of toll road,so it is unreasonable to use the index of toll road mileage and toll road density to measure the capital stock of toll road;For the eastern,central and western regions,the capital stock of toll road in the eastern region is 17,293.6 billion yuan,the central region is 13,477.8 billion yuan,the western region is 12,140.7 billion yuan,showing the ladder type distribution,and the capital stock of toll road can reflect the economic development level of eastern,central and western regions of China;From 2013 to 2016,the growth rate of toll road in China shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,however,due to the fact that the role of highway infrastructure in lagging economy does not affect the growth of GDP.Finally,using the calculated toll road capital stock data,the paper estimates the output elasticity of toll road is 0.031,compared with other literatures,the credibility is relatively high.By comparing the marginal output of the capital stock of toll road,infrastructure and non infrastructure,it is concluded that the current toll road has not reached the optimal scale,still in the state of insufficient supply,and we should continue to invest in the construction of toll road.