Quantification And Analysis Of Multiple Factor Risk Of Road Traffic Accident

Since the invention of car,great changes have taken place in people's way of life.Howerver,with the using of cars,the generated problems and the negative effects can not be ignored.The most serious problem is the harm of road traffic accident,which threatens human's safety and property.From the analysis of accidents information,it can be clearly found that a variety of risk factors exist in most recorded information.According to this phenomenon,the purpose of this paper is to explore the risk superposition phenomenon in the traffic accident,then quantify the accident risk under this phenomenon.First,based on 4 basic risk factors,which include the aberrantdriving behavior,illgal driving condition,emergency,and adverse environment,this paper established the classification index system of road traffic accident risk factors.According to the index system,we analyse the serious accident accidents in China.It can be found that the ration between the single risk factor accident and non-single risk factor accident is about 1:3,and the proportion of accidents which have two risk factors is highest.Besides,overload,overspeed and accident prone sections are the indexes which has the highest frequency.On this foundatio,this paper establishes the risk measure model based on mutual information theory.According to the qualification results,it can be found that the accident risk not only depends on the the number of risk factor,but also the influence of each kind of risk factor.Specific combination of risk factors will produce huge accident risk,such as aberrantdriving behavior and emergence.Meanwhile,it also can be found that the nonlinear of risk superposition.In the accumulation of risk factors,superposition will amplify the accident risk.Secondly,by establishing the cellular automaton model which can simulate the risk factors in traffic flow,this paper quantifies the accident risk under certain risk level.Then,this paper explores interaction between different risk factors by using the method of analysis of variance.In the assumed risk environment in chapter 5,the risk of accident caused by calling while drving is much higher than the overload and foggy weather,and when various risk factors existing at the same time,the accident risk is not equal to the sum of risk generated by mobile phone calls,overload and foggy alone.It also includes the superposition risks caused by superposition of mobile phone calls with overload and mobile phone calls with foggy weather.This also verifies the nonlinear of risk superposition.Finally,from the perspective of risk management,this parepr puts forward several suggestions of traffic management measures.Then,this paper furtherly study the influence of fog and calling while driving and their management,and based on the simulation results,this paper provide the speed limiting measures in foggy weather,and driving behavior suggests about calling while driving.In conclusion,in most cases,the occurrence of the accident is the result of joint action of a variety of risk factors,and the risk superposition is a nonlinear process.Therefore,in order to effectively reduce the probability of accidents,we should focus on the prevention of multiple risk superposition phenomenon,especially the specific of combination which can produce high accident risk when formulate the traffic management measures.