Research On Passenger Forecast And Operation Organization Of Dalian Rapid Rail Line 3

Passenger flow forecast is the basis of urban rail transit operation organization management,train operation scheme is the core of operation organization scheme.Dalian rapid rail line 3 is an important urban rail transit lines between the city and development zone,passenger volume is increasing year by year,transport capacity is tight,and it is necessary to expand the capacity expansion.And with the convergence of the JinPu line and Rapid rail line 3,the network passenger flow changes,the operation organization will adjust accordingly.This paper takes Dalian rapid rail line 3 as the research object,research the forecast passenger flow before and after the JinPu line connection and the operation organization after the expansion of the capacity expansion.In terms of passenger flow forecast,according to the situation of Dalian rapid rail line 3 operation organization and actual passenger flow over the years,based on the analysis of the existing prediction method,determines the passenger flow prediction method before and after the opening of the JinPu line.before the opening of JinPu line,using the combination model prediction method based on grey model and regression analysis model,avoids the possible local deviation that the single model may appear in the prediction.After the opening of JinPu line,considering the new line access will affect the passenger flow of the existing line,passenger flow distribution model is used to amend the passenger flow of Rapid rail line 3,and analyzed the time distribution,spatial distribution and average distance of passenger flow prediction results.At the same time,according to the status of equipment and facilities,put forward the necessity for expansion of Rapid rail line.In terms of operation organization,according to passenger flow forecast data,puts forward the expansion scheme of Rapid rail line 3,including line,station,communication and signal system.discusses the operation organization scheme after expansion of Rapid rail line 3,including vehicle marshaling scheme,based on train capacity and load factor,put forward different stages of the marshaling scheme;The train operation scheme,using the dual target nonlinear mixed integer programming model,introduces the average distance,and puts forward the urban rail transit plan model based on the full-length&short-turn operation modes of Rapid rail line 3.Based on this,the full operation plan of Rapid rail line 3 is worked out.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions for the operation organization management of line 3,and provides reference for the establishment of the operation organization scheme.