The Freight Volume Forecasting And Operation Plan

Based on the detailed analysis of Shang Yin to Ri Zhao along the railway resources distribution and the present situation of industrial and agricultural production,the author qualitatively predicts the transport demand.Compared the commonly used several kinds of methods to adapt to the conditions and the application scope of the freight volume forecasting,comprehensive consideration the state of the economy along the railway and transport demand,the author chooses section total freight volume forecasting method based on grey linear combination model,and predicts the freight volume from 2016 to 2020,respectively.Analyzing the main factors that influence the demand of freight volume,using regression analysis method to predict traffic volume model,the author respectively forecast the capacity for 2020,2030 stations.According to the forecast result of cargo volume,the author respectively design freight train operation plan in 2020,2030.And the author preliminary draft recently,forward goods train logarithm from Shang Yin to Ri Zhao railway,and optimize the train operation mode and marshalling plan.