Study On The Change Of Gas Consumption In Residential Buildings Under Natural Gas Heating In Wuhan

In the case of a city,its natural gas consists of many users,such as residents,commerce,industry,etc.There are many factors that affect the natural gas load of each user,thus determining the complexity of natural gas load.The study of natural gas load plays an important role in supplying and rational use.With the development of social economy,the number of natural gas users is increasing.Heating problems in the south are widely concerned by society and government.Natural gas,as a distributed energy using in heating system,is gradually used to solve the heating problem in the south.Therefore,it is necessary to make an accurate prediction of natural gas load and study the natural gas consumption of residential building heating.Through the prediction and analysis of gas change,considering the influence of residential building heating on natural gas load at the same time,therefore to guide the planning of natural gas pipeline network and improve the utilization rate of natural gas.This paper hopes to provide reference for urban natural gas planning by studying on the natural gas load under residential heating.At first,De ST is used to make the energy consumption simulation of typical residential buildings in Wuhan.The energy consumption of three different enclosure structures and three intermittent models is analyzed.The results are obtained in 9cases,including area index and household index,and the corresponding natural gas consumption index is calculated.In accordance with the principle of smallest energy consumption,this paper selects the simulation results of the building model of the enclosure structure for the calculation of the natural gas of the residential heating users.Second,the gray prediction,regression analysis,elastic coefficient method and time series analysis are used to predict the basic data of natural gas and its related data in Wuhan.By comparing the mean square variance,the results are selected according to the minimum mean square deviation.Based on the forecast results of basic data and combined with the "13th Five-Year" plan,this paper chooses 2020 as the forecasting time to calculate the gas consumption of the residential buildings heating users under different percentage,including the results calculated according to the area index and the household index.Third,based on the prediction results of natural gas base data of Wuhan,the annual consumption of gas users is predicted,including residents and commercial,direct combustion engine,industrial,CNG cars and residential building heating.The results can be used in peak regulation of the natural gas in Wuhan.Finally,according to the reasonable prediction results in 2020,the changes of gas consumption for natural gas users areanalyzed,and the peak hour and seasonal peak shaving and storage of natural gas in Wuhan are calculated.Compared with the hourly peak shaving of heating users in different percentage of residential buildings,the possibility of using the original gas storage for heating users in residential buildings is analyzed,and the advantages and disadvantages of different gas storage methods are analyzed,and the peak adjustment is reasonably discussed.The result of this article has an important guiding significance for the natural gas planning in the "13th Five-Year" plan of Wuhan.