| At present,various university scientific research institutions and phosphorous chemical enterprises have started to carry out various research activities on the recycling of phosphogypsum,the research and development of gypsum plaster wall materials has obtained certain technical support and market demand.However its industrialization,scale process still develops slowly.It is because scientific research institutions and enterprises are difficult to grasp the risks in their industrialization process,which seriously hinders the industrialization process of gypsum wall materials.In this paper,aiming at this problem,through to the related literature at home and abroad past industrialization projects similar to conduct risk evaluation instance analysis,use the means and methods,related research on phosphorus gypsum building wall materials,which can identify the risk factors in the process of industrialization and build index system of risk evaluation and risk assessment model,in order to phosphorus gypsum building wall materials industrialization process for effective risk assessment.The paper adopts the methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis,literature analysis,questionnaire survey,multi-level grey evaluation method,BP neural network model and fuzzy neural network model.In this paper,the problems in the industrialization risk assessment of gypsum wall materials are studied in the following aspects:(1)About the industrialization of scientific research achievements both home and abroad,the industrialization of new wall materials and risk assessment theory and method of research status quo,according to the actual situation of industrialization of phosphorus gypsum building wall materials,combining qualitative and quantitative analysis,establish of phosphorus gypsum building wall materials industrialization of risk evaluation index system.(2)In front of the industrialization of risk assessment model is established.characteristics of phosphorus gypsum walling materials building risk assessment,select a theoretical analysis of different methods of risk assessment,through the comprehensive consideration,choose the fuzzy neural network to establish phosphorus gypsum building wall materials industrialization risk assessment model.(3)In a university scientific research team of research and development of phosphorus building gypsum walling materials industrialization promotion as the verification example,the expert investigation method,have been involved invited experts of industrialization of new wall materials risk assessment of risk index scores,from past similar project evaluation instance of fuzzy neural network model can be derived from the training sample,choose multilevel grey evaluation method,BP neural network and fuzzy neural network,this paper proves that the selected evaluation method is feasible,and the assessment model is valid.(4)Based on the results and data of risk assessment,this paper puts forward the risk control strategy for the industrialization of gypsum wall materials,and promotes the further development of gypsum wall material industrialization.Through research,the thesis finally obtains the following conclusions.(1)About the industrialization of scientific research achievements both home and abroad of new wall materials industrialization and risk assessment theory and method of research status quo,according to the actual situation of industrialization of phosphorus gypsum building wall materials,combining qualitative and quantitative analysis.establish of phosphorus gypsum building wall materials industrialization of risk evaluation index system.(2)Through relevant research.combining Porter’s five forces model,the expert investigation method is adopted to phosphorus gypsum building wall materials,which can identify the risks in the process of industrialization will identify the risk factors of five types of first-level indicators,containing 13 build a secondary index,36 three-level index of phosphorus gypsum building wall materials risk evaluation index system.(3)According to the risk evaluation index system using Matlab software to build a risk assessment model based on fuzzy neural network,combined with the expert scoring method,to research and development of a university scientific research team of phosphorus gypsum building wall materials industrialization verifies the model of risk assessment,the fuzzy neural network model and the multi-level gray evaluation method to evaluate the risk level for the general risk,using the BP neural network model to assess risk level for low risk,proved that based on fuzzy neural network to establish phosphorus gypsum building wall materials risk assessment model is effective and has good precision and accuracy.(4)According to the risk assessment results of instance,respectively from the scientific research institutions,government departments,scientific research institutions belong to the superior department risk control countermeasures are put forward,for the implementation of risk management of the industrialization of the phosphorus gypsum building wall materials for reference,make as far as possible to reduce risk in the process of industrialization,reduce the loss. |