Short-term Passenger Flow Mixed Forecast-based Warning Mechanism Research On Subway Station

Along with our country economy and urban development develops so rapidly,more and more people flock to the city.It makes the city under huge pressure.At the same time the increase in car ownership make road congestion phenomenon more and more serious.The urban rail transit become an important part of the cities public transportation because of the advantages of high speed of operation and small delay.The urban rail transit has a huge advantage and attractes a large number of passengers.The metro transfer hub which is the line network connection point and largest wire net pressure point bears the distributing task of the whole line network.If you can’t do early warning and control,there will be a great potential safety hazard.Based on this,this paper made the following work,one is that we systematically analyzed the characteristic of passenger’s behaviour and the relation of three traffic parameters(flow,speed,density)under different facilities.To avoid the hysteresis of real-time monitoring,we use the flow as short-term prediction.According to the cycle stability and random characteristics difference that different samples show,short-term passenger hybrid prediction model is established.Time series model is set up for buying a ticket passenger flow data.The IC card data used the BP neural network algorithm.We can put the predicted results into early warning level cloud recognition model according to the various service facilities good threshold range.Finally summarizing the domestic and overseas solution of warning and controlling and according to corresponding warning level,we analysis the different coping strategies.This work effectively combined physical truth with advanced theory and ensured the precision of short-term prediction.It also scientifically described the concept of warning grade.It established a reasonable warning mechanism.Its foundation core is short-term prediction.Its main content is warning level recognition.Its important work is effective control measures.