Study On Influencing Factors Of Electricity Demand In China

Electricity as the engine of China's economic development,often suffers from shortages.Power demand is related to all aspects of the country,if there is a large area of electricity shortage,the power demand caused by power restriction will not only bring unexpected disaster to our economy,but also bring inconvenience to the lives of residents.How to avoid the shortage of electricity demand is of great practical significance to China's economic development.However for a long time,China's electricity demand can not keep in harmony with the national economic development.China's electricity demand is always in a state of shortage or surplus.Whether it is shortage or surplus,it will affect the healthy development of China's national economy and power industry.Therefore,it is necessary to study the law of power demand and economic development,and study the relationship between power demand and the factors affecting power demand.In this paper,the domestic and international factors affecting the demand of China's electricity market are studied in depth from the economic point of view by using theoretical and empirical methods,providing a reference for the analysis of electricity demand.The main research contents are as follows:Firstly,this paper analyzes the influence of five main factors,such as GDP,industrialization level,population,urbanization rate and international trade,on the demand of electric power,and analyzes the influence of four secondary factors,such as electricity price,disposable income of residents and the size of housing area,alternative energy and temperature difference,on the demand of electric power in China.Secondly,on the basis of theoretical analysis,five main factors are selected as explanatory variables for empirical analysis,and the data are selected for 2000-2016,and a time series model is established.In order to avoid multiple collinearity among variables,unit root test,cointegration analysis and Granger causality test are used to test the long-term stable relationship between variables.Then the long-term stability equation is established.Because of the existence of long-term equilibrium,an error correction model is established to test the deviation of short-term behavior of power demand from long-term equilibrium.The ECM coefficient of the error correction model is-0.3584,which indicates that 35.84%of the deviation between power demand and long-term equilibrium is corrected.Then recursive regression analysis is carried out,and the analysis results further verify the stability of the model.Finally,summarize the full text,and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the above analysis problems.