Research On Electric Power Demand Forecasting Based On Time Series Analysis

The main material basis of economic growth and social development is energy. Electricity as one of the main part of energy, has become the improve the economic development of our country, so as to make the realization of modernization important material base, so the development of power industry to the advanced level of social is there is a direct relationship. Power system's main task is to provide users with stable and high quality power, to achieve this task is the premise of power dispatching, operation and planning departments must master to users of electricity laws and trends. Every enterprise in the power market, both must to accurate grasp of market structure, the user's demand, the regularity and tendency of understanding, scientific and reasonable development strategy and marketing plan, to complete the enterprise the pursuit of economic interests. The electric power demand forecasting is the order of each enterprise on the user's demand, and the tendency of a powerful tool for understanding. This article is based on the background of based on time series analysis of conduct the thorough research to the electric power demand forecasting, in order to follow-up research and development in electric power industry to provide a better suggestion.In this paper, the research mainly divided into six parts:the first part is introduction, mainly the article selected topic background, research significance, research status at home and abroad and the research methods were summarized. The second part is the theoretical basis, definition of related concepts, time series theory is introduced, the VAR model is introduced, and so on. The third part is our country electric power industry supply and demand analysis, summary of main introduce the situation of supply and demand of electric power industry of China, the analysis of the influence factors of electricity demand, and demand for electricity in our country in the future development trend analysis. The fourth part is based on time series analysis of an empirical analysis of the electric power demand forecasting, firstly introduces the empirical analysis of the sample unit, and then analyses the applicability of the model, and then to build the index system of the model and specification, the final model building, this part is the main part of the paper. The fifth part is the Suggestions put forward. The last part is conclusion and prospect, done for the full text summary.