| Since the Industrial Revolution,global energy production and consumption have increased dramatically.At the same time,people pay more and more attention to the resources,ecology and environmental impact of energy production and consumption.In recent years,as the awareness of resource depletion crisis has been strengthened,more and more attention has been paid to water-energy nexus study.As the second largest country in the world in energy production and water consumption,China's water use for energy production accounts for more than 60%of total water use.Meanwhile,thermal power plants discharge high temperature once-through cooling water into surface water around,which will have a negative impact on the aquatic ecosystem.Besides,the combustion of fossil fuels during thermal power generation,will aggravate PM2.5 pollution,which can hurt human heart,lung and other organs.As the second largest province in China in terms of thermal power generation,Jiangsu Province demands large amount of water for power generation.However,the total amount of water resources and per capita water resources in Jiangsu are very low.The contradiction between the limited amount of water resources and the huge demand for water is becoming increasingly prominent.Besides,once-through cooling technology is widely used in thermal power plants in Jiangsu,resulting in a large number of waste heat continuously injecting into the Yangtze River,threatening the ecological environment of the Yangtze River.In addition,huge thermal power generation also brings about large PM2.5 emission,which threatens human health.For this,Jiangsu has witnessed a series of energy policies in recent years,and put forward the energy development goals in the future from two aspects:total energy consumption control and energy production structure optimization.As the most important energy type,thermal power attracts more attention.In order to evaluate the effect of energy policy implementation on energy systems in Jiangsu as well as its resources,environmental and health benifits,a LEAP-Jiangsu model is constructed in this paper.According to the control measures in the policy documents,the reference scenario,energy efficiency improvement scenario,industrial structure optimization scenario,clean energy development scenario and comprehensive scenario are set up respectively.Then energy production situation of Jiangsu under different scenarios in the future can be simulated.On this basis,using water use coefficient and total amount of available water data of each watershed in Jiangsu,this paper calculates water stress of each watershed in Jiangsu under thermal power generation as well as thermal emission and PM2.5 emission.On the basis of PM2.5 emission calculation,this paper also assess health risk of PM2.5 exposure.Results show that Jiangsu's total energy production will continue to grow under different scenarios in the future,and the growth will slow down and gradually become flat after 2027 under the comprehensive scenario.Measures about clean energy development,energy efficiency improvement and industrial structure optimization all have the effect of reducing energy production,among which industrial structure optimization measures is the best.On the other hand,thermal power generation accounts for more than 80%of total energy production.Only clean energy development measures can reduce the proportion of thermal power generation effectively.Reduced share will be replaced by wind power,photoelectricity and hydropower generation.From the level of prefecture-level city,Suzhou,Xuzhou and Nanjing are always the top-three cities of thermal power generation in Jiangsu from 2015 to 2030.With the increase of thermal power generation,the water use of thermal power generation is also increasing year by year.Nantong,Nanjing and Taizhou are the top-three cities of thermal power water withdrawal,while Suzhou,Xuzhou and Nanjing are the top-three cities of thermal power water consumption.Water stress is affected by thermal power generation and total available water resources in the watershed.Water stress at Suzhou,Wuxi and Yangtze River estuary is very high.Thermal emission from thermal power plants are closely related to thermal power generation amount.Wuxi,Suzhou and Nantong have become the top-three cities of heat emission due to the location of majority thermal power plants.Long-term adoption of multiple energy management and control measures can maximize the benefits of heat pollution reduction.Compared with the reference scenario,thermal pollutiorn reduction can be achieved about 560 trillion KJ by 2030 under the comprehensive scenario.In terms of PM2.5 pollution and health risk,Suzhou,Xuzhou and Nanjing are the top-three cities of PM2.5 emission from thermal power palnts.The emission reduction effect of industrial structure optimization measures is the most significant.The co-implementation of various energy management and control measures can maximize the emission reduction benefits of PM2.5.By 2030,Jiangsu is expected to reduce 127 thousand tons of PM2.5.At the same time,the co-implementation of various measures will also avoid 2.7 capita/month premature mortality cases,35 capita/month hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases or 6.6 capita/month hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases.The above results show that the energy policy during the 13th Five-Year Plan period in Jiangsu Province can effectively change the future energy production amount and production structure,promoting energy conservation.The co-implementation of various management and control measures can alleviate the pressure of water shortage in some areas,promote the reduction of heat pollution and achieve some health benefits.However,in order to promote the more effective implementation of energy policies in Jiangsu,this paper suggests that decision-makers should take into account the possible impacts of energy systems on water resources,thermal pollution and health risks in the process of formulating energy policies.It is also necessary to formulate regionally differentiated energy policies based on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of energy system impacts.After the implementation of the policy,it is necessary to make up for its possible negative effects promptly.On the other hand,it is necessary to speed up policy making on heat pollution and health risks to promote resource conservation,environmental protection and public health. |
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