Loss Estimation Of Ship's Pollution To Yangtzi-river And The Research Of The Modulating And Controlling Policy

Along with the rapid development the Yangtzi-river water transportation, on one hand water transportation accelerates the Yangtzi-river-valley's economic, on the other hand ship's pollution become more and more serious, but at present relevant research is very rare, so it is very imperious to study the influence of water transportation to water environment and relevant policy and mechanism to prevent and control ship's pollution. Based on abundant investigation and research of the relationship of water transportation and Yangtzi-river water environment, this article mainly studies ship's pollution loss estimation and the policy about how to prevent and control ship's pollution .The relationships between the river freight and water quality in the periods(1994 to 2003) are tested by using approaches of Johansen's cointegration test and Granger-causality test. It is found that the river freight is Granger reason of the Yangtzi-river water concentration. At the same time, we applies SPSS soft to analysis the relationships between the Yangtzi-river's synthetic pollution index and the river freight and can found the above factors are positive correlation and the river freight can interpret 18.5 percentage mutation of the Yangtzi-river water concentration.This paper presents an artificial neural network refined by genetic arithmetic theory to estimate the loss of oil pollution because of ship's accidents. The artificial neural network model is founded based on training patterns including damage value and its influenced factors by selecting ten cases from historical database. Then Proceed emulation and training for the network, parameters derived from the trained network can be used to evaluate relevant cases. Our results show that the artificial neural network approach for the damage estimation of ship's oil pollution has some advantages such as objective and reliability, it can provide important proofs for claiming for ship's oil pollution compensation and protecting nvironment.In the process of designing and simulating for water transportation and Yangtze River system construction, firstly we deeply analyses the system that including water-transportation factors, environment factors and controlled policy factors to find the positive and negative feedback causality between those factors. Secondly based on the system analysis we transform complicated net structure flux-graph model into tree-structure model during the course of building model through applying integrated SD theory and Graph-Theory; at last we can know about the modulating and controlling effects of those policy varieties by simulating the SD model.To solve the problem of preventing and controlling ship's routine pollution, this article introduces a compound-mechanism: Firstly, analyzing the physical and economic characters of ship's pollution, then the paper studies the prevailed pollution-controlling-mechanism and discusses it's compatibility to the ship's contamination. Finally, based on these above analysis this article introduces a compound-mechanism to control and modulate the ship's pollution. This mechanism includes two main parts "levying environment-concentration-tax and stimulating drawback of expelling". "Levying environment-concentration-tax" includes estimating whole-environment-concentration-tax and calculating single -environment-concentration-tax by positive analysis; "Stimulating drawback of expelling" elicits the true conditions about ship's pollution to achieve continuable development.At last this article systematically studies emergent reaction and loss compensation mechanism of ship's pollution. The research of emergent reaction mainly includes two parts: the forecasting technology of ship's pollution and designing system of emergent reaction, we applies gray theory to predict ship's pollution and ascertain risk probability in order to provide pertinent support for the following resources and facilities to deal with ship's emergency in the first part. In the second part we study how to deal with the emergency from technology and management point. Based on a great deal of analysis and investigation of international compensation mechanisms we establish Chinese compensation mechanism of ship's pollution loss.