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Assessment Of City Flood Control Emergency Ability Based On Evidence Theory

Posted on:2018-02-23Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:C ChenFull Text:PDF
GTID:2382330596953445Subject:Safety science and engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
At present,all kinds of city flood accidents outbreak more and more frequently in our country.On one hand it is due to the accelerating urbanization process,on the other hand it is due to the deteriorating climate.This has brought great obstacles to the development of cities,has caused great threat to the residents' life and property security,has brought a great inconvenience to residents' daily work and life.Under this big background,academic circles pay more and more attention to the safety of city flood problems,also pay more and more attention to city flood control emergency ability construction problems.However,the present research mainly focus on city flood risk assessment,the evaluation of city flood control emergency ability in study is less,especially the research of connotation of city flood control emergency ability,influencing factor analysis,structure of index system and comprehensive evaluation needs to be strengthened.Therefore,this paper,starting from the whole process of city flood disaster,combined with the characteristics of the city flood,systematically analyzes the various factors influencing the city flood control emergency ability,and then establishes an index system of city flood control emergency ability assessment.Based on comprehensively expounding the connotation of each index and the impact on the emergency ability,eventually this paper builds a city flood control emergency ability assessment model.Through the empirical analysis,the relationship of various influence factors of city flood control emergency ability is discussed,the comprehensive evaluation of city flood control emergency ability is done.First of all,based on the research and analysis of the related literature both at home and abroad,this paper elaborates the connotation and characteristics of the city flood disaster and emergency ability.Based on fully recognition of the emergency management of the whole process of emergencies,it defines city flood control emergency ability.Second,starting from the connotation of city flood control emergency ability,it deeply analyzes the various factors influencing the city flood control emergency ability,and builds up an index system of city flood control emergency ability,including five aspects such as emergency preparedness,monitoring and early warning,emergency response ability,late disposal ability and survey summary ability,and furtherly refines the various indicators.Again,combined with the connotation of each index and the impact on the emergency ability,it constructsthe city flood control emergency ability assessment model based on evidence theory.Being different from the traditional evaluation methods,this paper uses the evidence theory method to deal with the result of expert scoring,including the data's initial basic probability distribution and the synthesis of probability distribution.To a certain extent,it reduces the subjectivity of evaluation results.Finally,the comprehensive evaluation of Wuhan city Hongshan district flood control emergency ability is done,and suggestions about perfecting assessment results are given.Assessment results and actual condition is relatively consistent,it basically verifies the feasibility of city flood control emergency ability assessment based on evidence theory.Research methods and conclusions of this paper have a certain referencing significance for the construction of the city flood control emergency ability.
Keywords/Search Tags:city flood control, emergency ability, evidence theory, assessment
PDF Full Text Request
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