The Waterway Economic Analysis Of The South Channel Regulation Project Within Changjiang Estuary

As the entrance from the Yangtze River access to the sea,the Yangtze River estuary is the throat of the golden waterway,where the regions hold the highest level of development of economic situation in China.The construction of the Yangtze Estuary Channel is related to the overall strategy of national economic development.With the completion and extention of the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Channel Regulation,the transport efficiency of large ships has been improved,and the rapid development of the Yangtze River shipping and the port along the Yangtze River has been promoted,at the same time,with the construction of Shanghai international shipping center and the Shanghai free trade zone and “The Belt and Road” national strategy was put forward,it would cause the continue increasing of the number of ships,the future of the Yangtze Estuary Deepwater Channel North waterway capacity will face challenges.Based on the above situation,it is urgent to speed up the channel construction of the south channel of the Yangtze Estuary and improve the channel capacity of the Yangtze estuary.In this paper,based on the simulation technology,the economic benefits of the south channel regulation project are analyzed:Firstly,this paper analyzed the status quo of economic and social development along the Yangtze River estuary,and studied the present situation of cargo flow and ship traffic flow in the channel.The spatial characteristics and time characteristics of the Yangtze River estuary were studied.The existing problems of the Yangtze River estuary were presented.Based on the analysis of the present situation of the Yangtze River estuary waterway system and the distribution of the traffic volume and the traffic flow of the ship,the trend extrapolation method,the gray system model method and the exponential smoothing method were used to forecasting the economic and social development along the Yangtze River.The traffic volume of the Yangtze River estuary and the traffic flow of the Yangtze River estuary were combined and forecasted,and the basic data condition was established for the construction of the simulation system platform.Based on the detailed analysis of the navigation conditions and navigation rules,by using the historical data of the Yangtze Riverestuary,the ship formation,ship attribute and tidal regular model of the upstream and downstream of the Yangtze River estuary were studied and the ship traffic flow simulation of the Yangtze River estuary wa developed by using the Arena software Platform,meanwhile,the simulation results are compared with the historical data to determine the accuracy and feasibility of the simulation platform.Then,based on the historical data,three remediation schemes were proposed for the south channel.The evaluation scheme of the three remediation schemes of the south channel is estimated by the simulation platform.The direct economic benefits of the remediation schemes are compared with the.To carry out the assessment,according to the analysis of the results of the establishment of economic efficiency measurement model,and based on this model for direct economic benefits assessment,so as to get the best time to begin the South channel waterway renovation project.Based on the above analysis,the best timing of the remediation program for national economic evaluation,according to different remediation program of anti-risk ability to choose the best remediation program,and draw conclusions.