Analysis On The Optimal Lag Time Of Wind Speeds And Their Influence Factors On The Main Path Of China Winter Monsoon

Wind energy is a clean and pollution-free source of quality energy and wind power is now an important part of the grid.However,due to the instability of wind power,wind power integration has become a problem.Wind power prediction is an effective way to solve this problem.In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of ultra-short-term and short-term wind speed prediction,the change of wind speed,air pressure,wind direction and air temperature on the main winter monsoon in China are analyzed.First,Pearson's correlation coefficient is used to calculate the correlation between wind speed and its impact factor based on the nature of the correlation / distance indicator.The sample cross-correlation function(SCCF)was used to analyze the average optimization delay time between different wind speeds.After that,the correlation between the wind speed on the time window and the first principal component of its influencing factor and its optimization delay time are calculated.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)It is found that Pearson's correlation coefficient,cosine angle,etc.can reflect the future trend of wind speed and is more suitable for wind speed correlation prediction than European distance.When the correlation between the wind speed is higher,you can first use the correlation coefficient,the cosine angle,etc.to make the first round of change trend optimization;then use the European distance to do the second round of optimization.(2)Wind speed all over the world contains more obvious "diurnal variation" components.After eliminating the local "diurnal variations" from the original wind speed,the optimal delay time between reasonable upstream and local wind speeds can be derived.(3)Because of the terrain,the Taiwan Strait in our country is not only an area rich in wind energy but also an area particularly suitable for spatial correlation prediction.(4)The upstream and local pressure difference must be used.The pressure difference and the wind speed are the basic variables for predicting the future local wind speed.The first principal component is insensitive to the optimal delay time of local wind speed.This means that the wind tower's location is more convenient.