Study On Short-term Power Prediction And Optimal Configuration Of Grid-connected Photovoltaic Power Generation

Solar photovoltaic power generation has become the focus of attention because of its abundant resources,cleanliness and unrestricted geographical distribution.The use of grid-connected power generation is the main utilization mode of solar energy and the current mainstream power generation mode.However,due to the obvious intermittent fluctuation characteristics of photovoltaic grid-connected power generation,the stability is poor and the amount of power generation is susceptible to weather and geographical location.When the power transmitted by the photovoltaic power generation system is integrated into the power grid on a large scale,The power quality and the exchange power of the control section are affected.Therefore,in meeting the needs of safe operation and dispatch management of power grids,how to increase the development and utilization of solar energy has become a hot research topic of photovoltaic power systems.In this paper,the research content of photovoltaic grid-connected power generation system is mainly divided into two parts.First of all,photovoltaic power generation prediction technology,as an important means to achieve large-scale development and utilization of light energy,can reduce the negative impact on large power grids by accurately predicting solar power generation.In this paper,based on the environmental information such as weather type,the photovoltaic power generation prediction model based on echo state network algorithm is established,and the input data is analyzed by fuzzy clustering analysis.Based on the in-depth study of the principle of echo state network algorithm,combined with the photovoltaic output characteristic curve,a hybrid photovoltaic power prediction combination model using adaptive global harmony search algorithm to optimize the echo state network is proposed.In the example of photovoltaic power generation prediction,the comparison with the simulation results of the traditional model shows that the combined model with the new optimization algorithm has better optimization effect and higher prediction accuracy.Secondly,the related problems of optimal configuration of photovoltaic power generation system in microgrid are analyzed.By establishing appropriate mathematical model,the optimal position,optimal configuration capacity and power quality adjustment device of photovoltaic power generation system when incorporating into microgrid are deeply studied.Finally,on the simulation platform of the photovoltaic grid-connected power generation system,the simulation results show that the established energy management model can greatly reduce the impact of the photovoltaic power generation system into the microgrid,and effectively reduce the grid loss.The results are consistent with the proposed configuration model analysis.