Research On Travel Time Reliability Of Combined Travel Mode Based On Ground Public Transit

With the acceleration of urbanization and the improvement of transportation infrastructure,the travel distance of urban residents is gradually increasing,and the urban transportation system is also changing.As one of the most important means of transportation for citizens in small and medium-sized cities in China,as well as an important mode of transportation,conventional surface public transportation plays a decisive role in easing road congestion.Is common in addition,the current urban road traffic congestion and the phenomenon of residents travel difficult,in the small and medium-sized cities,the traffic problem has become affect the normal function and city sustainable development of a global problem,especially in the rush hour,traffic more prominent contradiction between supply and demand,the congestion commuter rush hour is to let people suffer,and the traveler for groups to travel time has strict requirement,and we have high expectations for travel reliability.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to pay attention to the travel problems of morning rush hour city commuters and study the travel time reliability of residents.Based on the previous definition of travel time reliability,this paper puts forward the definition of combined travel time reliability,that is,the probability that urban commuters will complete the whole travel process from the beginning to the end within a certain travel time budget.Then,from the perspective of urban commuters,the whole travel process is analyzed and described in detail.Then,according to its definition and description,the travel time in the whole process of combined travel is analyzed.Finally,the travel time in the whole process of urban commuters' travel is set as the sum of the travel time of the three travel subprocesses,i.e.,the whole process of urban commuters' commuting travel is divided into three travel subprocesses.Then,the paper carries out reliability analysis and research on the travel time of the three sub-processes,and focuses on the travel time of the bus sub-process which occupies the longest travel time in the whole travel process.The bus travel sub-process is divided into two travel situations,i.e.requiring transfer and not requiring transfer.Then,taking the actual bus data as an example,the travel time distribution law is studied.The results show that it is meaningless and irregular to study the travel time distribution characteristics from the whole day.Therefore,this paper designs a molecular time division method based on clustering,which uses the discrimination of the same time value to divide the time period,and then takes Jinan k115 as an example to analyze.It is found that the travel time conforms to the normal distribution in the divided time period.Then,according to the combined travel time reliability and the actual situation,this paper selects the travel process from Caoshanling District to Shandong Mansion in Jinan City,calculates and analyzes the travel time reliability of the travel process in two situations: transfer and non-transfer.It is found that the travel time reliability of bus transfer is much lower than that of non-transfer.Then,based on the distribution of the above-mentioned assumed reliability laws,the three travel times of the bus sub-process are respectively modified and optimized,namely,the reliability optimization of waiting time under the condition of passenger information perception,the reliability optimization of transfer time based on shared bicycle participation,and the reliability optimization of in-car travel time based on key micro-interval identification.For public transport enterprises,the influencing factors can be further explored,and relevant measures can be taken to improve the reliability of public transport operation.