Structural Analysis And Prediction Of Waterway Transportation Goods In The Upper Reaches Of The Yangtze River

In recent years,the social and economic development of the Yangtze River Basin has been rapid,the freight volume of the Yangtze River waterway has increased rapidly,and the demand for water transportation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River has also increased.The upper reaches of the Yangtze River(mainly including Chongqing,Sichuan,Guizhou,and northern Yunnan,and parts of Yichang,Hubei)are located at the“T”-type interchange between the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the western region of China.They are rich in resources and have a solid industrial base.How to study the structure of water transport goods in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River The characteristics of the channel provide guidance for the construction of the channel and provide strong support for the port construction planning.This is an urgent problem for the port channel department.By analyzing the current situation of social economy and comprehensive transportation development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the characteristics of the upstream transportation of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are obtained.For the inland waterway mileage,the growth rate is very slow,and the main contribution comes from the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.In the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,except for Chongqing,the proportion of water transport is relatively large,and the other three provinces are all under 5%,and the cargo turnover is increasing year by year.The analysis of cargo structure in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is mainly based on coal,oil and natural gas and products,metal ore,steel,mining materials and cement.The transportation volume of non-metallic ore in Yunnan Province has been increasing over the years,while the volume of mineral construction materials tends to be The coal transportation volume has shown a downward trend in recent years;the overall trend of coal change in Guizhou Province is not large;the water transportation volume of mining materials in Chongqing shows an increasing trend,while the growth trend of coal water transportation volume is not obvious,and the overall non-metallic ore water transportation volume It is also showing a growing trend;the trend of mineral construction materials in Sichuan Province is the most obvious,and has been in a growing trend,while the volume of coal transportation has begun to decline in recentyears,and the volume of metal ore transportation has begun to stabilize.Establish a cargo structure evolution model,and build a regional inter-valued input-output table through a balanced relationship between the sub-regional input-output tables,and use the price of each department and the price unevenness coefficient of each province to convert the value into physical quantities,and obtain the correlation between the provinces.The exchange of physical quantities.Establish an allocation model for waterway freight volume,and link the sectors in the input and output with the goods.Applying the above analysis results and established models to the provinces and cities in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,we forecast the cargoes in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and derive the structural characteristics of the main cargo in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in the future.