| As the most important river linking eastern and western economic development of China, the Yangtze River is the large tansportation passage for the logistics and export-oriented economy along the Yangtze River economiczone and plays a significant role in regional economic and social development. With the rapid development of Chinese economy over thirty years since reform and opening up, as well as the implementation of the Great Development of the West and the Middle Area Rise Strategy, the Yangtze River transportation demand increasingly goes up. In 2007, the Yangtze River arterial freight volume amounted to more than 1.1 billion tons, which increased by 11 percents comparing with that of year 2006. At present, the Yangtze River tops the first in freight volume of all the inland rivers around the world. The main goods of the Yangtze River transportation are large cargo in bulk, as coal, petroleum, minerals, construction materials and so on.There are abundant resource and intensive industries in the seven provinces and two cities along the Yangtze River trunk line,where has over 41 percents of economic aggregate of China. 80 percents of the materials used by these industries rely on the Yangtze River transportation. What's more, 80percents of minerals, 72 percents of crude oil and 83 percents of the electrical coal, which are used by those big corporantions along Yangtze, transported by the Yangtze River. The Yangtze River transportation is an essential support of local ecnomic development along Yangtze. In the long run, the volume of bulk cargo transported by Yangtze not only makes up a huge pencent of all the goods, but also maintains a sustainable growth. Therefore, it's very necessary to do the Yangtze River transportation demand prediction job scientificly and reasonably.This thesis is going to use Four-stage Method and predict the Yangtze River transportation demand by every kind of cargo in bulk. Chapter two will study predicting idea and methods of bulk cargo transportation demand of the Yangtze River. In the practical pre diction process, four methods, which are the elastic coefficient mothod, grey system forecast, cubic exponential smoothing method and regression analysis will be combined to predict the Yangtze River transportation demand generation volume. After that, Frator method will be choosen to predict the Yangtze River transportation demand distribution. At last, transfer rate method will be used to predict the volume of bulk cargo which is transferred from the Yangtze River to the rail way and road transportation in the Yangtze River transportation passage. At last, through iterative accumulation, we will get the throughput of each kind of bulk cargo in each route segment of Yangtze in future three feature years. Chapter three, four, five have a similar structure and each chapter is about a single kind of bulk cargo. The three chapters study the present situation of transportation demand in coal, minerals and nonmetal ores, and then do the prediction job according to methods of chapter two. Take chapter three as an example, based on introduction of coal resource distribution in China and related industry layout along the Yangtze River, the thesis analyzes coal throughput of Yangtze main ports and studies coal transportation flows according to related statistical data and investigation report. After that, according to the steps of Four-stage Method, use the predicting methods above and predict the Yangtze River transportation demand generation volume, distribution and the volume of bulk cargo which is transferred from the Yangtze River to the rail way and road transportantion in the Yangtze River transportation passage. After that, introduce the Yangtze River bulk cargo transportation OD tables in future three feature year into Matlab software, then through iterative accumulation, we will get the throughput of each kind of bulk cargo in each route segment of the Yangtze River. At last, analyze and evaluate the prediction result.
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