Research On Motor Vehicle Ownership Warning Model Of Cities

Since the reform and opening up,the process of urbanization has been accelerating,people's living standards have been improved,and the number of motor vehicles in cities has also risen sharply.However,the slow growth of urban road resources cannot keep up with the development of vehicle ownership,which leads to the overburden of urban roads and a series of traffic problems.To establish a scientific and effective early-warning model of urban motor vehicle ownership and make the growth of urban motor vehicle ownership match the growth of road resources is one of the important measures to alleviate many urban traffic problems.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the early-warning model of urban vehicle ownership.Firstly,in this paper,the definition of the warning has been introduced,and the significance of the early warning model of urban motor vehicle ownership has been expounded,then the influencing factors of the early warning model had been analyzed,including urban motor vehicle ownership and urban road network capacity.Moreover the influencing factors of urban motor vehicle ownership had been analyzed in depth from five aspects of social economy,population,road resources,public transportation and automobile industry policy,while the influencing factors of urban road network capacity had been analyzed.Secondly,the influence factor of vehicle ownership has been selected by grey correlation method.Also urban motor vehicle ownership forecasting model based on fuzzy multiple regression has been built.Two different membership functions of triangle distribution and normal distribution has been selected and compared.Then,the urban road network capacity forecasting model based on two-dimensional space-time consumption method has been built.Next,model parameters had been calibrated from the effective road area of the city,the effective operation time of the road and the average space-time consumption of the traffic individual.Then the total area of urban roads has been predicted by quadratic exponential smoothing,and urban road network capacity prediction value has been derived.Thirdly,based on the definition of the early warning model of urban motor vehicle ownership,urban road traffic saturation has been established,also motor vehicle ownership warning model of cities has been built.The calculation method of urban motor vehicle operation volume has been established,and the warning level has been divided by different saturation.Motor vehicle development control strategy has been recommended.Finally,Suzhou has been used as an application case,and based on related statistics of 2000-2017,the urban motor vehicle ownership and the urban road network capacity had been predicted,then urban road traffic saturation has been calculated.What's more,the warning level of motor vehicle ownership in Suzhou City has been determined from “Military Police” to “Heavy Police” level.Suzhou has been judged to have a series of serious traffic problems.And government departments had been advised to take timely measures to control urban motor vehicle development.Relevant improvement strategies had been proposed based on the actual situation in Suzhou.The model has been shown to be scientific and reasonable.Based on fuzzy multiple regression and spatio-temporal consumption method,an early warning model of urban motor vehicle ownership was established,predicted urban road traffic saturation,and determined the early warning level of urban motor vehicle ownership in the future years,laying a certain foundation for improving urban road traffic management theory.