An Empirical Study On The Influence Of Annual Performance Forecast On Stock Price Of Listed Companies

In China,there is a principal-agent relationship between the management and investors of listed companies.And the management will not disclose all the information of listed companies.The information that investors know is far lower than that of the management of listed companies,and information asymmetry arises spontaneously.China’s regulators have been committed to slowing down the information asymmetry.In order to avoid the clip-like fluctuation of the stock price when the annual report of listed companies is disclosed,in 1988,China securities regulatory commission established the performance prediction system based on the purpose of releasing the company’s operating risks in advance.What is the content of information disclosed in China’s performance notice? Will the information disclosed in the performance notice cause abnormal fluctuations in the stock price? Assuming that the information disclosed in the performance notice will cause abnormal fluctuations of the stock price,will the different contents disclosed in the performance notice have different influences on the stock price? Are there other factors that affect abnormal stock price fluctuations? This paper is based on these issues,through the proposed hypothesis,the use of empirical analysis to solve these performance forecast on the stock price impact of doubt.I have read the previous literatures about information management,the content of performance prediction information,and the different impact of different types of information on the stock price of performance prediction,and studied them on the theoretical basis of efficient market theory and principal-agent theory.Based on the annual performance forecast information disclosed by a-share listed companies in the household appliances sector of Shanghai stock exchange and IIIhenzhen stock exchange in the three years of 2016,2017 and 2018,A total of 54 valid samples were removed.Sample data were obtained from Wind database,giant tide CINIF information,tongda information platform and sina finance and economics net.First of all,the summary of the performance forecast is statistically described: the performance forecast is divided into “good news” type performance forecast and “bad news” type performance forecast,“good news” type performance forecast brings positive expectations to investors,“bad news” type performance forecast brings negative expectations to investors;The accuracy,accuracy and timeliness of the effective samples were statistically analyzed,and it was found that most of the performance prediction forms of the listed household appliances companies were interval estimates,with a high level of accuracy.The accuracy of performance forecast is 80%;The time difference between the effective sample performance forecast and the official annual report is normally distributed.The second step is to make an empirical analysis of 54 valid samples by using the event research method,and draw the following conclusions: during the window period,the performance forecast disclosure causes abnormal fluctuations in stock prices;“Good news” performance forecast has a positive impact on the stock price on the day of disclosure,and then the stock price returns to the normal fluctuation range,and the disclosure effect is short;The “bad news” type of performance notice has a negative impact on the stock price two days in advance.The negative impact is the most obvious on the day of the disclosure of the performance notice.And also found that the annual performance warning information is possible to be leaked in advance.Third,the significance test was performed on the conclusion of the event study method by using the single sample T test.All the results passed the significance test.Fourth,considering that there are other factors that may have an impact on abnormal stock price fluctuations,a multiple regression analysis is carried out for the other 8 factors.Selection of effective samples is cumulative excess return of explained variable,select performance forecast precision,accuracy and timeliness of the three related factors and the preliminary results of itself as explanatory variables,the market value of the natural logarithm of listed companies,asset-liability ratio,operating cash flow per share and net assets yield four samples and company financial related factors as explanatory variables,at the same time,choose the listed company stock trading activity as explanatory variables,a total of eight variables regression model is established.The regression analysis results were as follows: 8 other factors did not pass the significance test,which indicated that 8 other factors had no certain relationship with abnormal stock price fluctuations.In the regression process,collinearity test is carried out on explanatory variables,and the test results show that there is no collinearity between explanatory variables.Finally,based on the results of statistical analysis and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward some personal Suggestions to the regulatory authorities,listed companies of household appliances and investors in China.Regulatory authorities should strengthen the penalties for information disclosure and insider trading,and establish a performance prediction accuracy rating mechanism;Listed companies should strengthen internal control,eliminate insider trading at the source,establish an audit system combining internal and external audit,and improve the accuracy of performance forecast disclosure.Investors should strengthen the understanding of the company’s operating conditions,away from the fundamentals of bad companies,to ensure their own capital security.Help the supervision department to recognize the deficiencies of the existing system and improve the existing system;Helping listed companies to standardize information disclosure and disclose information in a lawful and compliant manner;Help investors to deepen the understanding of listed companies,make the right investment.