| As the proportion of renewable energy in power systems is increasing,the duality of volatility and load uncertainty in renewable energy generation poses new challenges in the production and operation of power systems.In addition,the high proportion of renewable energy power generation and grid connection has brought great pressure on the peaking of power systems.Energy storage has been considered as the key technology to solve these problems.Energy storage is widely used in power systems with high proportion of renewable energy.Under the current situation,the traditional probabilistic production simulation method can not effectively evaluate the reliability and economy of the power system.It is urgent to propose a probabilistic production simulation method that adapts to the high-proportion renewable energy and energy storage coordinated operation background.To this end,the research on probabilistic production simulation in the context of coordinated operation of high proportion of renewable energy and energy storage is carried out.Firstly,a probabilistic production simulation method considering wind power and load forecasting uncertainty is constructed by taking wind power as an example.The method not only preserves the uncertainty and time series of wind power and load,but also preserves the uncertainty of artificial prediction.The conventional unit is represented by a more accurate three-state model,and finally the system's power generation reliability index is obtained.Technical and economic indicators such as the number of starts and stops of the unit and production costs.The theoretical algorithm of the method is given in this paper.The modified IEEE-RTS79 power generation reliability test system is taken as an example to analyze the influence of wind power and load prediction uncertainty on the system,and then further analyze the wind power penetration rate.Impact.Secondly,based on the above-mentioned probabilistic production simulation method considering wind power and load forecasting uncertainty,a time-series probabilistic production simulation method for wind power and battery energy storage power systems is proposed.The method takes into account the system operation scheduling strategy,and associates the operation scheduling strategy with the loading sequence and energy storage and discharging conditions of each unit in the probabilistic production simulation,which effectively describes various operation scheduling strategies.In order to preserve the timing variation characteristics of component output and load,the available capacity state is used to describe the output state of the unit at each moment,and the energy storage charge and discharge are equivalent to the load and the unit respectively,which are included in the probabilistic production simulation based on the time series load curve.Through comparative analysis of the examples,it is found that the operation scheduling strategy has a greater impact on the system reliability index and the power generation of each type of unit.Finally,based on the probabilistic production simulation method of wind power and battery energy storage power system,based on the scene of energy storage auxiliary power system peak shaving,and considering the wind power to participate in power generation and priority consumption,the optimal configuration model of energy storage capacity of power generation system is proposed.The charge and discharge of the energy storage are equivalent to the load and the unit respectively,and the total cost of the power generation system after the energy storage is involved is minimized.The operating constraints of the system,the power supply and the energy storage are taken into account,and the storage system is determined to participate in the peak storage.Can charge and discharge strategy and optimal energy storage capacity.The simulation of the modified IEEE-RTS79 is carried out.The results show that the proposed method can obtain a reasonable energy storage capacity configuration scheme. |
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