Research On Operation Strategy And Risk Of Load Aggregator Considering Uncertainty

With the in-depth development of demand response(DR)technology,the development and utilization of small and medium user resources on the demand side has gradually attracted people's attention.Under this background,a new type of emerging market entity,load aggregator(LA),has emerged.At present,the diversification of demand side resources exacerbates the uncertainty of DR and increases the risk of investment operation of LAs.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the operational strategies and risks of LAs in uncertain environments.As a basic theory,this paper first summarizes the economic value,operational mechanism,and the uncertainty and related risk research theories of LAs.A two-stage load scheduling model from bottom to top is designed for the DR optimization scheduling problem of industrial LAs.The first stage is based on the actual industrial production process,using multi-objective optimization methods to coordinate the user economy and satisfaction of the production load interruption,and based on this,the production load interruption contract;In the second stage,industrial production load,rooftop photovoltaic and workshop air conditioning load are used as response resources.Considering the uncertainty of response,a stochastic opportunity constrained programming is used to establish a response scheduling model to maximize the profit of the LA.The example analysis proves the feasibility and flexibility of the proposed twostage load scheduling model.Aiming at the DR optimization scheduling problem of LAs in photovoltaic-battery residential areas,based on the fuzzy number and consumer psychology principles,the response uncertainty model of residential Interruptible load can be built,and the DR fuzzy chance constraint programming model of LAs is established.Based on economic dispatch analysis,two indicators of response credible capacity and response capacity credit are defined to measure the response reliability of LAs.Based on semi-variance method and fuzzy simulation technology,the expected response capacity not supplied of LAs is evaluated.The example provides a reference for the DR scheduling of the LA by analyzing influencing factors of response reliability and risk.To solve the investment planning problem of new LAs,the bilateral uncertainty faced by LAs is considered.The K-means clustering method is used to process historical electricity price data and analyze the uncertainty of DR signals.Based on the portfolio and CVaR theory,the demand side resource optimization configuration model of the LA is established.The example analyzes the demand side resource planning results of LAs under different risk preferences,emphasizes the role of energy storage devices in stabilizing risks.