Feed-in Tariff Pricing Model Of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation And Investment Analysis In China

In response to the pressure of energy shortage and increasing environmental pollution,countries around the world are actively developing new energy industries.Photovoltaic is an important part of China's strategic emerging industries and the important way to win the blue sky protection campaign.Among them,distributed photovoltaic generation refers to a photovoltaic generation facility that is built near the user's site and operates in a user-side self-use,surplus power,and balanced in the distribution system.With the continuous expansion of China's distributed photovoltaic industry and the increasing progress of photovoltaic technology,the cost of photovoltaic equipment has been greatly reduced,making the development of the distributed photovoltaic industry enter a new stage.However,the adjustment of feed-in tariff of China's distributed photovoltaic failed to match the speed of PV equipment cost reduction.How to formulate scientific and reasonable feed-in tariff of distributed photovoltaic is an important issue related to the stable and healthy development of China's distributed photovoltaic industry.Therefore,this paper studies the development of feed-in tariff of distributed photovoltaic in China,taking into account the interests of investors,and explore the value of PV project investment based on the feed-in tariff,and reversely test the effectiveness of the pricing model of feed-in tariff.Considering that most of the research in the past has a rough classification of solar energy resources,the reasonable income of investors is not accurately measured.The influence of different user types and self-use ratios on the value of distributed photovoltaic investment is often neglected.There are few studies on the dynamic correlation between the cost of distributed photovoltaic equipment,sunshine time,feed-in tariffs,the ratio of self-use,project economic benefits and investment values.Pricing studies on distributed photovoltaic feed-in tariffs are rarely measured in combination with dynamic costs,reasonable profits,and taxes.Therefore,based on the existing theories,this paper uses the accounting cost method to consider the user type,loan method,ratio of self-use,regional differences and other factors to construct a feed-in tariff pricing model of distributed photovoltaic generation in China,dynamically predicting the feed-in tariffs of different regions in China in 2018-2021.On this basis,this paper conducts NPV and IRR analysis on commercial and residential users with self-use ratios of 100%,75%,50% and 25% in 2018 to evaluate the investment value of the simulated distributed photovoltaic project.The research results show that the feed-in tariff pricing model and investment analysis results are reasonable and effective.The government should adjust the level of feed-in tariff more frequently,so that residential users' IRR is maintained at 8%-17.29%,and commercial users remain at 8%-30.87%.In addition,based on the combination of investment analysis tools and learning curve,this paper uses system dynamics to reveal the dynamic mechanism between feed-in tariffs and other factors(such as profit,technological progress and photovoltaic costs),in order to provide a reference for future academic research.