An Integrated Fuzzy-Stochastic And Factorial Analysis Method For Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing Urban Agglomeration Ecosystem Planning

With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization,the course of urban agglomerations in China has been greatly pushed forward.In this course,however,eco-environmental problems caused by population growth,urban expansion and excessive pollutant discharge are on the rise,such as the degradation of ecosystem services and the deterioration of environmental quality.Thus,effective planning of urban agglomeration ecosystem is important for facilitating socio-economic development and eco-environmental sustainability.Urban agglomeration ecosystems involve multiple subsystems(e.g.,society,economy and ecology)and include multiple components that change over time,which result in a large amount of complexity and uncertainty.In this study,a factorial fuzzy chance-constrained programming(FFCP)method is developed for planning urban agglomeration ecosystem through integrating fuzzy probability programming,chance constraint programming and factorial analysis method.FFCP cannot only address uncertainties presented as possibility distributions and random variables,but also evaluate the individual and the interactive effects of multiple eco-environmental factors on urban agglomeration ecosystem.Then,a factorial fuzzy chance-constrained urban agglomeration ecosystem(FFCP-UAE)model is formulated and applied to a real case of Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing(abbreviated as GFZ)urban agglomeration ecosystem planning.Several findings can be concluded:(i)results reveal that the solution with high system benefit faces high default risk and low reliability;(ii)results of factorial analysis show that the main impact factor to Guangzhou's benefit is the COD discharge constraint,while the main factors to benefits of Foshan and Zhaoqing are SO2 emission and solid waste discharge constraint,respectively;(iii)results also show that there is a significant interaction between the above three factors,which in turn affects system benefit.The findings can help decision makers to gain insights into tradeoff between economic development and eco-environmental protection as well as generate synergetic development strategies of urban agglomeration in an economic-effective and ecological-harmonious way.