Load Characteristics Analysis And Load Forecasting Research On The Background Of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Integration

Promoting the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Integration is an important decision-making arrangement made by the Party Central Committee and the State Council under the new historical conditions.This strategic deployment is of great practical significance and far-reaching historical significance for coordinating and advancing the "Four Comprehensives"strategic blueprint and realizing "The Two Centenary Goals".Its basic starting poilt is to case the function of non capitals and reset the three functions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.This makes the social and economic factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region change and develop.The traditional load characteristics in the power grid have changed under the new economic situation.It is necessary to study the law of its evolution and transfer clarify the new impact of economic and social factors on power load,and make power planning that meets the needs of urban development.Firstly,this paper expounds and analyses the research trends of industrial structure transfer,load characteristics and power demand forecasting under the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei at home and abroad.Based on the current situation of power grid development and load characteristics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the related requirements of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy,this paper explores the current situation of industrial structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the challenges faced by its transfer.Based on location quotient theory,the trend of industrial structure transfer in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was judged.Secondly,the changes of regional load characteristics under the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are analyzed,and the factors affecting regional load characteristics are analyzed by using fishbone diagran analysis method and improved grey relational analysis method.Then,the prediction model and prediction index are sorted out and screened,and the prediction index through stationarity test and average impact value test is selected as the input data of the model.Then these forecasting indicators are substituted into different forecasting models,and the forecasting models are compared and validated with historical data.The support vector machine model optimized by the hybrid frog leap algorithm with better forecasting effect is selected as the load forecasting model in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The future power demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is forecasted,including load characteristics such as electricity consumption,maximum load,peak-valley difference rate and load rate.Finally,according to the forecasted results of future power demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the trend of regional coordinated development,this paper puts forward the impact of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development on power grid planning,and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,such as promoting the construction of intelligent power grid,optimizing the structure of supply side,and integrating Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei power grid,etc.This paper studies and analyzes the load characteristics of regional power grid under the coordinated development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei.Based on the analysis of the impact of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development on regional load characteristics,a regional load forecasting model is established.In view of the impact of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development on regional power grid planning,the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions,which provide necessary theoretical support for the formulation and management of planning strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei power grid company.It is conducive to the scientific and efficient planning of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei power grid company and provides strong support for the economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.