Spatial-Temporal Distribution And Influencing Factors Of Mismatch Between Taxi Demand And Supply Using Gps Data

Taxis,owing to their role as an essential part of urban transport,are providing flexible and convenient door-to-door mobility service for passengers.From the perspective of driver behavior and system planning,this thesis studies the spatial-temporal distribution of taxi mismatch between demand and supply and its influencing factors through index construction and regression analysis using GPS data.The research result may help to lay the foundation for improving the current mismatch problem and increasing taxi operation efficiency.In this thesis,Shanghai was taken as a case study.In the perspective of driver behavior,three vacant ratio levels are regarded as dependent variables,five factors may affect the vacant ratio level are then extracted as independent variables relating to the searching strategies,delivery strategies.A Generalized Multi-Level Ordered Logit(GMOL)model is hence built to identify the significant factors.Lastly,an elasticity analysis is conducted.In the perspective of system planning,three indicators are constructed to reveal the spatial–temporal mismatch pattern.These mismatch areas lie mainly in the central areas of Shanghai and are more concentrated in the west part of Huangpu River in the time period 21:00 to 22:00.The taxi service mismatch problem is analyzed by relating it to various spatially explicit socio–demographic,transportation,and built-environment variables.A linear regression and a Multinomial Logistic Regression model are implemented to detect the factors contributing to the taxi mismatch problem.The results show that Multinomial Logistic Regression is more appropriate,and population density,residential areas,the number of points of interest,and road density are revealed to exhibit significant relationships with the taxi undersupply.In contrast,commercial areas,as well as the other two transportation-related factors,i.e.,the number of bus stops and the distance to nearest subway station,are observed to be statistically significant for both “oversupply” and “undersupply” conditions.This thesis analyzed the distribution of taxi vacant ratio,and proposed a method of rapidly identifying the spatial-temporal mismatch between taxi demand and supply.The regions with frequent mismatch issues are also addressed.What's more,the influencing factors of vacant ratio and mismatch problem are also extracted.The results provide practical significance for achieving a reasonable allocation of taxi resources,improving social efficiency,and reducing traffic emission.