Dynamic Bus Dispatching Method Based On Fair Entropy

Public transport is the main mode of transportation for urban residents to travel,which plays an important role in relieving urban traffic pressure and reducing the emission of traffic pollutants.Regular buses are still a major component of public transport,bearing more than 50% percent of passenger traffic.However,due to the impact of traffic conditions and other factors,delays in departure or bus breaks often occur,directly resulting in long waiting times,unstable intervals,crowded ride environment and other problems.In order to reduce the adverse effects of delay or break,improve the stability of bus operation and reduce congestion,this paper proposes a dynamic bus dispatching method based on predictive return time.This method does not need to change the capacity allocation,it is based on the dynamic prediction of bus return time,with the fairness of dynamic scheduling adjustment as the goal,using entropy theory to build a dynamic public transport dispatching fair entropy model.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Analysis of the current situation of domestic and foreign research.At present,the related research of public transport dispatching mainly focuses on static bus dispatching method,static bus dispatching model solving algorithm and combinatorial scheduling mode,but static bus dispatching has been difficult to cope with the increasingly complex bus operation environment.With the maturity and popularization of bus itinerary prediction Technology,it is possible to predict and warn in advance that there may be delays or shifts in departure.(2)Analysis of departure delay.Based on the analysis of the operation data of a bus line in Guangzhou,it is found that the average incidence of delay is more than 30%,the proportion is more than 40% in the working day,and the proportion is more than 50% during the peak travel hours of the working day,and the average departure delay is up to 230 s.(3)Construct a fair entropy model for dynamic public transport dispatching.At present,there is little research on the pre-regulation method to alleviate the adverse effects caused by the delay of departure or the break of classes.In this paper,a pre-control method for extending the departure interval in advance is proposed,and based on entropy theory,a fair entropy model of dynamic public transport dispatching is constructed in order to realize the fairness of early extension of bus departure interval in advance.(4)Analysis of examples.For the possible occurrence of three kinds of departure delay or break class situation,the examples are verified and analyzed respectively.The results show that in the case of forecast delay or shift,it is possible to reduce the bus break and improve the stability of bus operation by early warning and prolonging the interval of bus departure in the early period,so as to be able to bear the passenger demand in each shift before and after the balance as far as possible.