Strategic Research And Dynamic Techno-Economic Analysis Of Chemical Looping-Based Coal-Fired Power Plant

Chemical looping combustion(CLC),as a new type of fossil fuel efficient utilization technology,is considered to be one of the most promising technologies for fossil energy utilization and conversion.Theoretically,it can achieve near-zero emission in carbon dioxide separation,and no thermal NO_x is generated meanwhile chemical energy cascade utilization is attained through two-step reaction.These inherent advantages promote the extensive researches around the world and rapid development of the CLC technology in recent years,while most of these studies focus on the fuel reaction mechanism,materials of oxygen carrier and reactor design and other specific technical aspects.With the further development of CLC technology bringing more new applications and expansion,it will face larger scale demonstration and commercialization.Strategic analysis and techno-economic analysis are effective methods for studying the application prospect of CLC technology.These two kinds of analysis have great significance implications for competitiveness of technology,market positioning and development prospects.Therefore,a SWOT(strength,weakness,opportunity and threat)strategy analysis of CLC technology was carried out,and the strengths,weaknesses,opportunities and threats of the internal and external influence factors were comprehensively analyzed.According to the principle of“Multiple action-single goal”,the decision-making and opinions of SO strategy and WO strategies and other 16 technical strategy decision-making recommendations were formulated,such as building the international research and development highland of CLC,fully strive for the support of government policies and multi-channel investment,etc,and the SWOT strategy matrix of CLC was constructed.The dynamic techno-economic analysis of CLC was studied as following steps.Firstly,the static investment cost,cost of electricity(COE),carbon avoidance cost and carbon capture cost of the 2×350MW normal circulating fluidization bed and retrofitted CLC power plant based on conventional coal-fired power plant were calculated.For example,the COE of CLC power station is about 1.14 times as large as the circulating fluidized bed power station,and the annualized cost structure of the conventional power plant and the CLC retrofitted power plant was compared and analyzed.Sensitivity analysis also was carried out on some influencing factors such as coal price and annual operating time.Secondly,the two-factor learning curve model and the learning rate calculation method for the“learning by do”and“learning by research”cost predictions for CLC power plant were proposed.The two-factor learning curve model was compared with the single-factor through using linear regression,which reveals that the two-factor learning curve was superior to the single-factor model in the dynamic cost analysis of CLC power plant.Combining the scenario analysis,under high speed,benchmark and low speed learning scenario,the two-factor learning curve of static investment cost and COE of CLC coal-fired power plant were obtained.The results show that the COE decreases by more than 100?/MWh in the benchmark scenario.Overall,with the increase in installed capacity and R&D investment,the economics of CLC coal-fired power plant have gradually achieved competitiveness compared with traditional coal-fired power plant under the benchmark and high-speed learning scenarios.