Arctic Liner Shipping Route Design Under Uncertain Weather And Ocean Conditions

Arctic shipping route is a shortcut for seaborne cargo transportation between Europe,North America and East Asia.Due to the accelerated ice melting in the Arctic Ocean in recent decades and this anticipated tendency in the foreseeable future,the annual shipping time through Arctic waters continues to extend and thus the Arctic shipping route is gradually opening up.Research on the Arctic shipping route design can provide a basis for our country to seize the opportunities of shipping in the Arctic region and also make up for the lack of tactical research on the Arctic shipping route which has important academic value and practical significance.This study on the Arctic shipping route design innovatively considers uncertain weather and ocean conditions.Combined with the characteristics of liner shipping,stochastic programming method is used to develop a two-stage mixed-integer linear programming model,and the corresponding calculation algorithm which is based on the L-shaped method is designed to solve the problem.Based on the relevant Arctic data,the model is applied to the liner shipping using the Arctic Northern Sea Route between China and Europe.Short,medium and long-term Arctic shipping route planning results are obtained,and the schedule,freight volume and total profits are analyzed.The planning results proves the rationality of the model and algorithm in a certain extent.Finally,this thesis further analyzes the important strategic significance and status of the Arctic shipping route in foreign trade between China and Europe,and evaluates the relative competition against the existing all-year shipping routes through the Suez Canal.This study can help our government to better establish the national marine development strategy in the future,especially the Arctic shipping policies and measures.In addition,the study can also be used as a reference for the actual operation and development planning of the relevant shipping companies.