Climate Change And Its Impact On Arctic Northern Sea Route:Response Of Natural Environment,Route Planning And Shipping Game

Aiming at the scientific problems of global climate change and the realistic issues of Arctic natural environment and geopolitical security response,this paper incorporates macro-analysis and quantitative assessment to study the future Arctic sea ice variation,the navigation expectation of the Northern Sea Route(NSR),the optimal sailing route,the economic potential of shipping and the influence of the opening of the NSR on the traditional routes.The results show that Arctic sea ice will continue to melt,the sailing time on the NSR will extend,the navigation area will enlarge and the optimal sailing distance will reduce in the future.Thus,the NSR has the economic potential to become a competent new route.Meanwhile,the rise of the NSR will impact the shipping trade of the traditional routes,making more and more shipping companies adjust their strategies and intensify the competition among shipping companies,which will lead to a decrease of consumer shipping cost,promoting consumer trade demand and the prosperity of Eurasian maritime trade.The main work and results are as follows:(1)Aiming at the uncertainty existing in the current CMIP5 climate coupled models,an adaptive forecasting through exponential re-weighting algorithm based on spatial similarity index measurement is constructed to simulate the future variation of sea ice cycle and long-term trend.Experimental results show that the proposed ensemble forecasting algorithm reduces the uncertainty existing in climate models and improves the accuracy of sea ice simulation.There is a clear downward trend on the future sea ice volume from 2019 to 2030,but rebounds will happen in some years.(2)As for the uncertainty in current climate models,the limited experience related to Arctic safe navigation,and the different understanding as well as knowledge among experts,this paper constructs an economic potential analysis framework of NSR based on Bayesian Network.In this framework,the uncertainty of variables are determined by qualitative and quantitative evaluation methods,and are transmitted by Bayesian network.The average accuracy of reasoning the well trained Bayesian network can reach 93.33%.Additionally,the model introduces information flow algorithm to test the sensitivity.The experimental results show that each route is not independent,and the shipping economy on the traditional route will be affected by the rise of the NSR.(3)Aiming at the Arctic special climate and hydrological conditions as well as the complex topographic and geomorphological characteristics,this paper establishes an improved A* path planning algorithm based on hesitant fuzzy set theory to solve the multi-objective route optimization problem,which provides decision support for the future Arctic navigation.Taking the Eurasian maritime trade as an example,this paper simulates the optimal route for IAS ice-strengthen ships in different months on the NSR from 2020 to 2030.The results show that the navigable time of the NSR is prolonged as a whole,the navigable area is gradually enlarged,and the optimal distance is shortened with the melting of sea ice.Furthermore,the economic cost of IAS ice-strengthen vessels on the NSR is lower than that of using the same size conventional vessels on the traditional route.(4)In order to fix the assumption that the traditional route and the Arctic route are independent of each other in the current navigability analysis,which leads to the inaccurate evaluation of the model,this paper proposes a bi-level game model with Stackelberg form to study the impact of the rise of the NSR on the traditional route.The upper model is used to solve the competition among different shipping companies based on the change of shipping companies' strategies,while the lower model is used to solve the change of corresponding consumer demands on different routes.Taking the NSR and the traditional route via Suez Canal(SCR)as an example,this paper studies the impact of the rise of the NSR on the Eurasian maritime trade pattern.The results prove that the rise of the NSR will have a huge impact on the SCR,and all shipping companies can adopt two strategies in the competition,i.e.speed optimization and freight adjustment.For shipping companies,with the extended sailing period,maritime trade continues to tilt towards the NSR.Arctic shipping companies will gain more profits than that before the NSR opening.At the same time,the proportion of trade on the SCR will continue to decrease,and the profits of the traditional shipping companies will continue to decline.For consumers,the competition among shipping companies leads to the overall decline of the economic cost,while navigation on the NSR will reduce the time cost,which promotes the growth of consumer trade demand.As a whole,the rise of the NSR in the future will expand the total shipping trade,increase the overall profits of the two types of shipping companies,and make the shipping market more active.