Research On Reliability Prediction Models And Methods Of Transmission And Transformation Facilities

The existing reliability statistical analysis methods of the operation historical data of transmission and transformation facilities have played an active role in the reliability management of transmission systems.Carrying out research on the reliability prediction models and methods of transmission and transformation facilities,and application of reliability target management of transmission and transformation facilities,it is of great significance to increase the reliability level of transmission systems.220kV and 500 kV transformers,circuit breakers,arresters,current transformers and HVDC transmission systems are taken as research objects in this paper.Based on the historical operation reliability data,the reliability prediction models of transmission and transformation facilities and HVDC transmission systems are established,and the reliability prediction methods are presented.The main research contents are as follows:(1)The reliability prediction model based on power function is established for transmission and transformation facilities.The parameters estimation and fitting check methods of reliability prediction models of transmission and transformation facilities are given.Based on analysis of the reliability statistics results of transmission and transformation facilities,such as 220 kV and 500 kV transformers,circuit breakers,arresters and current transformers in China,the regression analysis results of undetermined parameters and fitting check results of reliability prediction models are obtained.(2)The reliability prediction model based on polynomial is established for transmission and transformation facilities.The reliability prediction mathematical models of availability factor and maintenance coefficient oftransmission and transformation facilities based on polynomials are presented.The undetermined parameters and fitting check results of reliability prediction based on polynomials models of transmission and transformation facilities are given,such as 220 kV and 500 kV transformers,circuit breakers,arresters and current transformers in China.(3)The reliability prediction methods of transmission and transformation facilities are presented.The availability factor prediction method of maintenance coefficient based on power function,the reliability prediction method of availability factor based on polynomials,and the availability factor prediction method of maintenance coefficient based on polynomials are given,together with the mathematical formulas,reliability prediction results and error analysis results of reliability prediction of transmission and transformation facilities,such as 220 kV and 500 kV transformers,circuit breakers,arresters and current transformers in China.(4)The reliability prediction mathematical model of HVDC transmission system is established.The reliability of HVDC transmission system is evaluated by energy availability.The inherent reliability of HVDC transmission system is evaluated by using the energy availability deducted scheduled outage hours during period hours and maintenance coefficient.The mathematical model of the maintenance coefficient based on power function is used.The verification methods of reliability prediction results of HVDC transmission system are given,together with reliability prediction examples of three HVDC transmission systems,such as TIAN-GUANG,GAO-ZHAO and JIANG-CHENG in China.