Study On Long-term Power Generation Dispatching Method Of Lancang River Cascade Hydropower Station Under Hybrid Electricity Market

In recent years,with the reform of electric power system and the implementation of clean energy policy,hydropower enterprises,as independent generators,gradually participate in market competition as the main body.After considering market factors,the target and mode of hydropower dispatching have changed fundamentally.Under the market environment,electricity quantity and price are determined by market competition.Hydropower enterprises pursue the greatest benefit of their own power generation and are responsible for their own profits and losses.On the basis of runoff uncertainty,the optimal dispatch of cascade hydropower stations increases the uncertainty of electricity price,which makes the dispatch of hydropower more difficult,and also makes hydropower enterprises face greater risks.Based on the Yunnan electric power market,taking the cascade hydropower stations in the lower reaches of Lancang River and the middle reaches of Jinsha River as the engineering background,considering the characteristics and market position of the two cascade hydropower stations,this paper studies the long-term generation dispatching method of cascade hydropower stations under Hybrid Electricity Market.The main research contents are as follows.(1)In this paper,a runoff relationship analysis method for Lancang River and Jinsha River basins based on the division of high and low runoff levels is proposed.Taking the sum of natural interval discharge of cascade hydropower stations as the runoff of the basin,the runoff of the lower reaches of Lancang River and the middle reaches of Jinsha River is divided into high/medium/low inflow years according to the classification standard of guaranteed rate method.Based on the result of the division,the probability statistical analysis is carried out to establish the correlation between runoff of the two basins,and several typical inflow scenarios are extracted.(2)This paper presents a long-term generation dispatching method for cascade hydropower stations considering hybrid electricity market.Assuming that cascade hydropower stations participate in the provincial centralized matching market and the West-to-East Power Transmission market,considering the power generation composition of the power station,the total power generation of the power station is divided into three parts: preferential electricity,centralized matching electricity and West-to-East Power Transmission outside the framework agreement.Preferential electricity includes non-competitive power generation,regulation power of hydropower stations with annual regulation capacity and above,and West-to-East Power Transmission within the framework agreement.Regarding user information as known,without considering user-side game behavior,the maximum generation capacity model is used to estimate rival generation capacity,and the monthly demand function is fitted by actual data.Regression analysis method is used to determine the relationship between electricity quantity of West-to-East Power Transmission outside the framework agreement and price.From the perspective of unified bidding in river basin,the maximum benefit model of cascade generation under hybrid market is constructed.(3)Based on the actual data of Yunnan power market,the cascade hydropower stations in the lower reaches of Lancang River and the middle reaches of Jinsha River are taken as examples to verify the model.Lingo global solver is used to solve the model.In order to verify the rationality and reliability of the model,multiple indicators of the proportion of electricity,water level,output,electricity price,power generation and power generation benefit are analyzed in detail.The results are compared from three aspects: different typical inflow,different proportion of electricity and different declaration strategies of Jinsha River,and the changing rules of each index of Lancang River cascade power station under different scenarios are analyzed.The results show that the model can make use of the regulation capability between power stations and the price difference of each part to realize the reasonable allocation of power generation in time and space.