Modeling And Simulation Of Multi-mode Bus Scheduling For Preventing Service Interruption

The Priority of public transport development can solve the increasingly serious problem of urban traffic congestion effectively.In recent years,as the implementation of ‘bus city' policy and the government attaches importance to the priority development of public transport,how to improve the level of bus scheduling,the quality of public transport services has increasingly become the focus of public transport companies and researchers.Due to the influence of uncertainty factors such as passenger flows and road congestion,it may have such a situation that the dispatch center has no bus to send out for a considerable period of time,which is a situation where bus service is interrupted.The interruption of bus service,on the one hand,it will damage the image of the bus enterprise and increase the difficulty of operation management,on the other hand,it will lead to passengers' waiting for a long time at the station.Therefore,solving the problem of bus service interruption is significant to the improvement of bus service quality.For this reason,considering the interests of bus enterprises and passengers,the thesis establishes a bus service interruption-oriented multi-mode scheduling model,and makes an example analysis of it.Firstly,the thesis takes a use of the actual IC card data and GPS data of 176 bus line in Guangzhou city to analyze the distribution of passenger flow arrival and bus travel time,and the obtained results were input into the eM-plant simulation model.According to the indexes obtained from the simulation model,it is found that the bus line has a serious problem of bus service interruption during the rush hour.Secondly,predicting bus' s returning time is a crucial step to solve the problem of bus service interruption.In this thesis,the Kalman filter method is used to predict the bus travel time,so as to predict the return time of bus.On this basis,the method of bus service interruption prediction is established.Next,from the perspective of the randomness of passenger flow and the uncertainty of road condition,a bus schedule model based on random passenger flow and travel time is established.On the basis of which,a service-interruption-oriented multi-mode scheduling model is established by adding shuttle bus and express bus modes.And a hybrid intelligent algorithm based on neural network and genetic algorithm is adopted to solve the scheduling model.Finally,eM-plant software is used to establish a simulation model for bus line 176 in Guangzhou,and data such as station passenger,travel time and departure schedule are input to simulate the operation of the bus line and analyze the scheduling scheme with examples.In the simulation model,vehicle trajectory and passengers' waiting time data are collected to evaluate the scheduling scheme.The results show that the multi-mode scheduling model proposed in this paper can effectively solve the problem of bus service interruption,reduce the passengers' average waiting time by 11%,ensure the continuity of service,and improve the stability of bus route operation.