Research On Electric Vehicle Charging Load Forecasting And Charging Strategy Considering Time And Space Distribution

With the rapid development of the global economy and the growing problem of environmental pollution,the development of clean energy is imminent.Electric vehicles have been promoted in countries around the world due to their advantages of the electric vehicles has no pollution and emissions and low noise.However,the large-scale development of electric vehicles has gradually increased the demand for charging by car owners.As the construction of charging infrastructure in China is relatively lagging behind,how to accurately predict the charging load of electric vehicles and rational planning of electric vehicle charging facilities has become the problem that needs to be solved now.Therefore,this thesis mainly studies the charging load forecasting and charging strategy of large-scale electric vehicles,and provides a theoretical basis for the planning of charging stations.The main work is as follows:(1)Accurately predict the charging load of residential electric vehicles based on the travel characteristics and travel rules of residential electric vehicle users.Firstly,the travel rules and charging characteristics of the owner of the community are analyzed,and the charging strategy of the electric vehicle in the community is analyzed.Secondly,a charging strategy based on the time series valley period is proposed to guide the owner of the cell to charge the order and use the charging strategy accurately predicts the charging load of the electric vehicle in the community,and that can maximize the utilization of the valley period for charging without increasing the existing distribution capacity of the cell,and reduce the peak-to-valley difference of the distribution network load.Finally,Different charging modes are compared to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed charging strategy,and provide theoretical guidance for the construction of the charging station.(2)A node-branch planning method is proposed for the electric vehicle users in the selected planning area to accurately predict the charging load in the area.Firstly,the influencing factors of charging station load modeling and the road traffic network model in selected areas are analyzed reasonably,and the Dijkstra algorithm is used to plan the shortest distance for the owner of the vehicle to reach the charging station.Secondly,combined with the historical travel characteristics of electric vehicles.And charging data and using the node-branch load prediction model to accurately predict the charging load of electric vehicles in the area,and predicting the total charging load of all electric vehicles in the area by analyzing the charging load model of a single electric vehicle;Finally,through the analysis and comparison of the charging load changes in different seasons and working days and holidays,the total charging load of electric vehicles in this area is accurately predicted,and it provides a certain reference for the rational planning of electric vehicle charging stations.(3)Accurately predict the charging load of electric vehicles in the planned area and make reasonable planning of the charging station position.A method for planning and constructing the charging infrastructure of electric vehicles is proposed,and the charging area is reasonably planned in combination with the service range and capacity limit of the charging station.By comparing different charging station planning schemes and analyzing their investment costs,the final plan of the electric vehicle charging station in the region is determined with the goal of minimizing the total social investment cost.