Research On Urban Health Degree Evaluation And Prediction Of Chongqing

With the acceleration of urbanization and the continuous development of the economy,urban health problems such as traffic congestion,environmental pollution,unemployment rate and high crime rate have become increasingly prominent,threatening the healthy development of people.Under the new historical conditions,healthy city development is becoming more and more important.Healthy city is developed based on hygiene city and have received the attention of both theoretical and academic circles.More and more countries are participating in the construction of healthy city.China's practice of healthy city is also increasing.As one of the municipalities directly under the Central Government,Chongqing has put forward new requirements for the construction of healthy city.In order to promote the construction of healthy cities in Chongqing,it is more urgent to reasonably evaluate the health degree of existing healthy urban construction.It is easier to find the contradictions and problems of the existing development path for predictingthe decelopment trend.First of all,based on the literature analysis,combined with the theory of health promotion and the theory of sustainable development to define the concept and connotation of urban health to constructs a theoretical system of health degree.Secondly,based on the concept of healthy city and construction goals,the urban system is divided into social subsystems,economic subsystems and environmental subsystems.According to the Chongqing situation,constructing the Chongqing health city evaluation index system and setting the index weights.The construction of a healthy city is a process of continuous development.Different construction stages have different construction goals.Therefore,it is necessary to consider the healthy city in Chongqing in stages.According to the theory of urban development stage,Chongqing is divided into three stages: 2006-2008,2009-2012 and 2013-2017 by adopting five indicators: urbanization rate,secondary industry's share of GDP,tertiary industry's share of GDP,per capita GDP and urbanization speed.Reasonably set the standard value of the indicator and construct an evaluation model to evaluate the health of the three stages of Chongqing.Then,using the system dynamics to establish the Chongqing healthy city simulation model,and carry out inspection and correction,simulate the future development trend of Chongqing's health degree.Finally,combined with the evaluation results and the experience of typical healthy city construction cases at home and abroad,eight control programs are set up to compare the changes in health degree under different programs,to find out the parameters that affect the most health degree,and to provide a basis for improving the strategy.The result of this paper: in the evaluation of Chongqing's 2006-2017 health degree,this paper finds that the comprehensive health of the three-stage cities shows an upward trend,indicating that the city is developing in a good direction.In the third stage,it is found that the comprehensive health of the city needs to be promoted,and there is still a long distance from the target state,and the environmental health has a downward trend.It is necessary to pay attention to the health of the environmental subsystem.In the prediction of health in 2018-2022,it is found that under the state of natural development,the environmental health shows a trend of continuous decline,indicating that there is room for improvement in the environmental subsystem.Simulation revealed that different subsystems have different strong sensitivity factors.In addition,there is a cumulative effect on health.As time progresses,the influence of related factors is gradually exerted,and the impact on health is gradually becoming significant.Therefore,based on the analysis of simulation results,this paper proposes a targeted improvement strategy from the four aspects of environmental protection,economic development,health care and social security to provide guidance for the construction of healthy cities in Chongqing.