Research On PC Construction Cost Prediction Based On Grey System Theory

In comparison with the traditional cast-in-situ construction mode,the precast concrete(PC)construction is prominently advantageous in reducing environmental pollution,reducing construction time,reducing labor intensity,improving construction quality,and saving energy and reducing emissions.It satisfies the nation's pursuing in social development and construction industry reform.However,the cost of PC construction mode is higher than that of the cast-in-situ construction mode,which greatly restricts its extension to the whole society.The government,enterprises,and scholars have done substantial research and proposed specific cost-control strategies,from the project cost management theory.However,the studies on cost prediction theory and its practical application is rare.Some preliminary application is rough and with less precision.In the early stage of the development of PC construction,the research on cost prediction can not only enrich the cost management theory for the PC construction but also benefit project decision-making and cost management for relevant parties.Therefore,this paper explores the application of grey system theory in PC construction cost prediction with analysis and verification in theoretical and practical aspects.The major study context in this paper includes those:1.This paper predicts the PC construction cost based on the state-of-the-art of PC construction and relevant research status together with project cost management theory.2.According to the process of PC construction,the effects of influencing factors in the design stage,production and manufacturing stage,transportation stage,and assembly construction stage on the cost are investigated respectively.The key factor to the cost is determined by sorting the influencing factors by their weights.3.GM(1,1)prediction model is established for the PC construction.Given a specific case,the characteristics and applicability of GM(1,1)model are explored.Considering its limitations,A grey interval prediction model is proposed.4.We obtain some findings through a comparison and analysis between these two models.The GM(1,1)model is especially powerful for the monotonous original data;however,it is dysfunctional to deal with the data feature by volatile shock sequence and not suitable for the medium and long term prediction.In contrast,the gray interval prediction model remedies the problem of GM(1,1)model for the shock sequence and is reliable for medium and long term prediction.This paper explores the research of PC construction,and needs further stidy to continuously improve the accuracy of PC construction cost prediction ande promote the development of assembly building in china.