Research On Political Risk Identification And Evaluation Of China Investment In Central Asia Energy Project

With the deepening of the “The Belt and Road” initiative,China's energy companies have ushered in another opportunity to go global.In particular,China's energy enterprises and projects entering Central Asian countries will have more opportunities for development,and will also make more contributions to China's energy sector interests and security.However,investing in Central Asia's energy projects is not always smooth,and will face many uncertainties and risks,including political risks,market risks,business risks,personal safety risks and natural disasters.Among them,the most worrying overseas energy project owners are political risks.How to identify,evaluate,control and manage the political risks of overseas energy projects has become a common concern of managers and scholars in the field.This paper focuses on the political risks faced by China's energy enterprise projects entering the investment and operation of Central Asian countries.Firstly,through combing the literature research on political risk and risk management theory,system vulnerability theory and overseas investment,this paper expounds the special environment of China's energy projects in Central Asia from the perspective of project internal system vulnerability and external political environment.The mechanism of political risk.Summarize the 32 risk factors related to the political risk of energy project investment in Central Asian countries,and investigate the statistics and factor analysis of the degree of political risk caused by 32 risk factors,and summarize them into 9 major risk factors.On this basis,the evaluation index system of political risk of overseas energy projects is constructed through AHP.Using this evaluation system,taking H company's investment in Kyrgyzstan energy project as an example,using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to quantify the expert rating of H energy project,it is concluded that the overall political risk score of H energy project is at a “high risk” level.The external environmental political risk indicator score is generally higher than the internal vulnerability index.Finally,according to the evaluation results and the problems reflected by the indicators of the model,some countermeasures and suggestions are given for how to prevent the political risks of overseas energy projects.This paper combines the internal vulnerabilities of the project with external political and environmental factors,and studies the political risk identification and evaluation of China's investment in Central Asian energy projects,which will help strengthen the better internal and external integration of risk management.Ensure that our overseas energy projects can be stable and far-reaching.