The Overestimated Global Wind Power Potential Under Rare Earths Constraints And The Environmental Impacts Of Rare Earths Production

Rare earths are key resources for wind power development.However,when assessing wind power potential,the constraints of rare earth resources under industry competition are ignored,resulting in an overestimation of potential of wind power,which may affect low carbon energy strategic planning and implementation.In addition,the environmental impact of the wind power industry through the consumption of rare earths is still unclear.To address these problems,Inventory Compilation and Material Flow Analysis are combined to calculate the production of rare earths in all regions of the world,the consumption of rare earths in the wind power industry,and the consumption structure of rare earths.Then,the Scenario Analysis method is used to predict the future production of rare earths and the demand for rare earths in the wind power industry,and further analyze the shortage of rare earths in the wind power industry and the corresponding carbon emission reduction gap.Finally,in order to calculate the environmental impact of rare earths production,life cycle models of three key rare earth elements required for the manufacture of turbines i.e.,Nd,Pr and Dy,are built based on life cycle analysis software“Efootprint”.The results show that the annual output of rare earth ore will continue to grow from2018 to 2030.By 2030,the annual global production of rare earth ore will be about 190500-199625 tons,of which more than 70%is from China.In the scenarios of Increased enforcement and Relaxed restrictions,the production of Ion Adsorptive Clays has been reduced significantly,resulting in a decline in annual production of Dy of 30.65%and21.09%,respectively.In the consumption structure of Nd,Pr and Dy,the wind power industry accounts for about 3%of the total.In 2030,the largest gaps of Nd,Pr and Dy in the wind power industry are 10356.23 tons,3533.05 tons and 768.57 tons,respectively.During 2016-2030,the shortage of Nd,Pr and Dy will lead to a carbon emission reduction gap of 9.43×10~9 tons.The most important part of the life cycle environmental emission of Nd and Pr production is concentrated sulfuric acid intensified roasting,which contributes more than50%to greenhouse gas emissions,primary energy consumption,photochemical oxidation and acidification.The most important part of the life cycle environmental discharge of Dy production is mining and dressing,which contributes more than 60%to water consumption,particulate matter emission and photochemical oxidation.Based on the results,the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations:Reducing the environmental emission of rare earths production and the environmental cost caused by rare earths utilization in the wind power industry by speeding up the development and promotion of clean production technology;Remedying the rare earths gap by strengthening R&D investment and recycling management of rare earths resource recovery technology and improving the development of foreign rare earths resources;Setting the wind power development target on the premise of rare earth availability,and balancing the contradiction between rare earths demand and wind power carbon emission reduction.By quantifying the global wind power development and carbon emission reduction potential under the constraints of rare earths,and identifying key aspects of rare earths production environment emissions,this study provides the scientific evidence and data support for formulating scientific and rational wind power development and carbon emission reduction targets and promoting clean and sustainable development of wind power.