Modeling And Analysis Of Spatiotemporal Factors Affecting Of The Characteristics Of Auto Travel Demand

Understanding the characteristics of auto travel demand is an important foundation for formulating traffic demand management policies and alleviating traffic congestion.The travel demand of autos have typical characteristics of spatiotemporal heterogeneity,and are also affected by factors such as the built environment and social and economic properties.Therefore,it is necessary to start from the built environment and social and economic properties,in-depth study of the main factors influencing residents to travel by auto,and explore the impact of relevant factors on the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of auto travel demand.This article takes the travel demand of autos in the Traffic Analysis Zone(TAZ)as the research object,and based on the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)model,the spatiotemporal characteristics of auto travel demand and its influencing factors model are constructed.The specific research content mainly includes the following aspects1)Analysis of basic characteristics of auto travel.Proposed methods for obtaining auto and total person travel demand based on the license plate identification data and mobile phone signaling data;Established a auto type division method and obtained the travel demand of different types of autos;Proposed a process of processing and screening of built environment and social and economic properties factors.2)Modeling the influencing factors of auto travel demand.By testing the spatiotemporal nonstationarity of the regression coefficients and the model,the spatiotemporal nonstationarity of the travel demand influencing factors and the accuracy of the GTWR model modeling are analyzed.Based on the GTWR model,a spatiotemporal influencing factor model of auto travel demand is constructed.The validity of the model is verified by comparing with the traditional Ordinary Least Square(OLS)model and Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR)model.On this basis,the paper further analyzes the relationship between the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of auto travel demand and traffic travel peak,parking facilities,etc.,as well as the differences of influencing factors between different types of autos and total person travel demand.3)Modeling of factors influencing auto trip distribution.Based on the GTWR model,the influencing factor model of auto trip distribution is constructed and compared with the Gravity model.The results show that the fitting accuracy of the GTWR model demand estimation is increased by 49.5%.On this basis,the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of auto trip distribution and auto travel characteristics between and within TAZs are further analyzed.In this paper,auto travel demand is modeled and its influencing factors are analyzed,which provides important theoretical and data support for a deep understanding of the impact of built environment and social and economic properties on auto travel demand,and lays an important foundation for building a more accurate traffic demand prediction model.