| With the deepening of the strategy of "adhere to the concept of green development,establish the priority of clean energy development",in recent years,China's wind power has made rapid development,wind power and hydro thermal power together into a large-scale hydro thermal wind multi energy complementary scheduling mode.The intermittence,fluctuation and randomness of wind power bring great challenges to the water fire and wind dispatching,especially the short-term joint dispatching.How to excavate the generation characteristics of all kinds of power sources and give full play to their respective regulation advantages to carry out multi energy complementary coordination has always been the research hotspot and focus of the short-term dispatching of power grid.Based on the research background of South China power grid,combined with the characteristics of the power supply in the rich hydropower area,this paper studies the short-term complementary coordination of multi energy in the rich hydropower area from the aspects of power generation characteristics analysis,cluster wind power prediction,water fire wind joint scheduling modeling,etc.the main work and the theoretical and practical application results are as follows:(1)A three-stage power interval prediction framework for wind farms is proposed to predict wind power in the next 24 hours.The model is mainly divided into three parts: feature point recognition and prediction,success rate curve generated by fuzzy matching method,and wind power confidence interval prediction.The prediction results of wind power output in a province in South China show that the model can significantly improve the prediction accuracy compared with the traditional cumulative method and statistical scale-up method.At the same time,it can also provide wind power output in different confidence intervals for reference to other energy scheduling.(2)The short-term cooperative optimal operation model of wind power cascade hydropower is established.In order to solve the pre-determined wind power and cascade hydropower output plan,because the wind power output prediction error is large and it is difficult to meet the load demand of the power system,the wind power confidence interval is introduced,and the wind power output confidence interval is modified by rolling in different periods,so as to improve the reliability of collaborative operation of wind power and cascade hydropower stations.The simulation results of a two-stage cascade hydropower station and a wind farm group show that the model can give full play to the advantages of peak regulation of cascade hydropower stations and improve the efficiency of wind water complementary power generation.(3)The uncertainty of wind power affects the stable operation of power grid,and the problem of "wind abandonment" is prominent after large-scale wind power grid connection.In order to fully consider the uncertainty of wind power,a short-term wind water fire joint operation strategy based on wind power confidence interval is proposed.By using the advantages of flexible start and stop and fast climbing of cascade hydropower stations,a multiobjective joint optimal operation model with the minimum operating cost and the maximum consumption of clean energy,such as wind power and hydropower,is constructed.The model is divided into wind power operation layer,hydropower operation layer and thermal power operation layer by layer solution,and an integrated non parametric and heuristic method is proposed The improved particle swarm optimization(PSO)framework realizes the hierarchical optimization of multiple power sources.A case study in a region of South China shows that the model can significantly improve the utilization level of wind power and hydropower,and achieve more wind power and hydropower generation,less thermal power generation.Finally,the paper summarizes the content of the whole paper,and looks forward to the deficiencies in the research process and the further research. |
PDF Full Text Request