Real-time Optimal Dispatch For Large-scale Electric Vehicles Considering Electric Vehicle Load Characteristics And Dynamic Noncooperative Game Model

With the important characteristics of energy saving and emission reduction,electric vehicles have received widespread attention from countries around the world.It is foreseeable that China’s power grid will face the problem of large-scale electric vehicle access.As a flexible load,the electric vehicle charging load has characteristics such as randomness and uncertainty.Therefore,the load characteristics of electric vehicles and the real-time optimal dispatching of large-scale electric vehicles have become one of the important research works of electric power experts and scholars at home and abroad.In order to study the basic user behavior characteristics of electric vehicle loads,first,data analysis and data fitting methods are used to fit mathematical models of electric vehicle user car habits,and a probability density function for various behaviors is constructed to guide the electric vehicles dispatch operation.At the same time,the load forecasting methods of electric vehicles from the aspects of mechanism analysis and data-driven analysis are studied respectively.The short-term electric vehicle load forecasting methods based on Monte Carlo simulation method and random forest regression method are proposed.The simulation shows that they are both effective.In order to solve the problem of optimal scheduling caused by conflicts of independent optimized scheduling targets between each electric vehicle aggregator(EVA)after the large-scale electric vehicle(EV)connected to the grid,a large-scale EV real-time scheduling model based on dynamic non-cooperative game considering the interests of EVA is proposed.Firstly,the cluster equivalent model of large-scale EV is constructed and the interest relationship of each EVA under dynamic electricity price mechanism is analyzed.Then the complete potential game theory is used to prove the existence of the unique nash equilibrium solution of the game model and the solution is derived.Finally,a real-time distributed algorithm based on the alternating direction multiplier method is proposed to solve the real-time decision problem of each EVA.The simulation results show that the model can effectively perform peak load shifting and reduce the charging cost of EVAs.At the same time,it is proved that the proposed model is more suitable for real-time large-scale electric vehicle charging optimal scheduling from the optimization results,computing time and protection of user privacy.