Research On Joint Wind-water-storage Optimization Schedulings Considering Wind Power Uncertainty

With the rapid development of society,the increasingly severe environmental situation and the lack of traditional energy directly affect the human life,and make the energy change widely concerned by the world.To find clean and efficient renewable energy to reduce the dependence on traditional energy and to maintain sustainable development of energy,economy and environment is an important strategic issue facing the world.Hydropower,energy storage and wind power combined operation,so that wind power has been well controlled,the impact on the Power Grid has been mitigated,is the inevitable trend of social development in the future.In this paper,the optimal operation of Fengshui storage joint considering the uncertainty of wind power is studied,mainly from the following aspects:Firstly,the operation characteristics of wind power,small hydropower and energy storage battery are analyzed in detail,and on this basis,the feasibility and characteristics of the three complementary systems are analyzed.The operation mode of the micro-grid containing wind-water-storage is described,which provides a theoretical basis for establishing the wind-water-storage joint optimal operation model.Secondly,four Copula functions--the empirical Copula function,the normal Copula function,the T-Copula function and the Gumbel-Copula function were used to predict the wind power.After the prediction,Latin hypercube sampling(LHS)was used to sample the wind power data,and k-means clustering was conducted to obtain three typical scenarios of wind power output.Given the confidence level,the power prediction error is taken as one of the input parameters of the uncertainty analysis model,and the uncertainty analysis model based on wind power prediction is established by the parameter estimation method.The model is applied to a fan in a micro grid,and the results show that,within a certain confidence degree,the wind power prediction interval obtained can provide more reliable wind power prediction information for scheduling decision than the point prediction method.Thirdly,in view of the uncertainty of wind and water,the couple function is used to find the prediction error interval of wind power and hydropower.A large number of wind and water output scenes are extracted from the interval using Latin hypercube sampling,and k-means algorithm is used to cluster the extracted scenes to obtain typical scene sets.Feng shui is established considering wind power uncertainty store joint optimization scheduling mathematical model,the minimum operation cost and abandon the wind rate as the objective function,the distributed power output and energy balance as constraint conditions,will be the typical scenario input,using the classic NSGA2 algorithm was used to solve the optimization process,using fuzzy method to get the Pareto solution set of compromise solutionsFinally,the application analysis of multi-objective optimal scheduling of water-bearing wind storage micro grid is realized.Taking a fengshui storage and micro-grid system as the application object,the uncertainty analysis method and optimal scheduling model proposed in this paper are adopted,and NSGA2 algorithm is used to solve the optimization model to obtain the optimal compromise solution and conduct comparative analysis.The results show that the wind abandon rate of the three typical scenarios is less than 5%,and the operating cost of the three scenarios is 37.3%,37.1%and 36.5%lower than that of all the power grid.Combined operation of hydropower,energy storage and wind power can effectively improve the utilization rate of wind power,improve the impact of wind power fluctuations on the power grid,and enhance the stability of power grid operation.