Research On The Distribution Of Superhighway Excess Return Based On Team Game Theory

Because of its huge construction cost,long franchise period and many stakeholders,the PPP project of expressway has always been the focus of attention of all parties.Because of the unreasonable income distribution,the project cannot continue.At present,there are many researches on the distribution of reasonable income,and excess income distribution is an important part of income distribution.At present,most PPP projects only make income distribution,but there are few researches on income guarantee and excess income distribution.In reality,a large part of PPP projects have excess earnings,but the lack of corresponding distribution of excess earnings leads to damage to the interests of the government and the public,and even the project may fail.The excess return is the part of the actual return minus the upper limit of the reasonable return.Because the PPP highway is public welfare,it can prevent investors from obtaining the excess return.However,if this part of the return is not distributed,it will hit the enthusiasm of investors,do not work hard to operate,and do not generate the excess return.This is contrary to the original intention of the government department,which is formulated by the government department The principle of allocation is to comply with incentive compatibility constraints.However,how to distribute excess earnings reasonably is a difficult point.Only reasonable distribution of excess income,can the construction and operation of Expressway develop well,attract social capital to participate in the project,save government capital,and make the project healthy and sustainable development.At present,there are still many problems in the freeway projects that can generate revenue for users to pay.Many freeways have excess revenue,but the lack of distribution of excess revenue leads to higher profits for social capital,which damages the interests of the public.Therefore,it is very urgent and important to introduce the experience of excess income distribution at home and abroad,and combine it with the actual situation of specific projects to develop an effective model of excess income distribution.This paper takes PPP expressway project as the research object.Firstly,it makes a literature review,introduces the relevant research of excess earnings at home and abroad,summarizes the reasonable and unreasonable points,and puts forward its own ideas for the distribution of excess earnings of PPP expressway project.Secondly,the definition of excess return is studied,the traditional NPV value is calculated,and then the internal rate of return under the condition of predicted return is calculated.Then,in the early stage of the project,the government department and the investor will agree on a minimum rate of return acceptable to the investor,which will besubstituted into the financial net cash flow statement,and the cash inflow will float down in proportion to get the lowest reasonable rate Income floor.At the same time,using the theory of practical options,hedging theory of the lower and upper limit of reasonable return,and substituting it into the option formula,we can get the upper limit of reasonable return.Therefore,the definition of excess return is the actual return minus the upper limit of reasonable return.Then,on the basis of principal-agent theory,the model of excess income distribution based on team game model is established.The first stage is to establish a horizontal and vertical team model.In Holmstrom’s team excess return model,we analyze the proportion of excess return under the condition of investor cooperation and independence.In the income equity team model,the paper analyzes the excess income distribution proportion of static game and sequential game.Calculate the distribution proportion of excess return in the team model,under the Pareto optimal,the investor optimal distribution proportion of return.In the second stage,based on the principal-agent theory,a dynamic excess income distribution model is established.According to the principle of excess income distribution formulated by the government departments,a reasonable pricing cycle is agreed.In the next stage,the excess income distribution proportion is determined according to the cost accounting of the previous stage.In the multi-stage dynamic game model,considering the ratchet effect on the next stage,the government dynamically modifies the proportion of the next stage according to the performance of the first stage.In the end,the paper takes Hefei Liuan expressway as an example to analyze the model of excess income distribution,and forecasts the calculation of the proportion of excess income distribution in the first stage.The results show that with the increase of excess income,the proportion of excess income distribution of investors gradually decreases,and the proportion of excess income distribution of government departments gradually increases,which is also in line with the prevention of higher excess income of social capital in China To maintain the public interest,it also shows that the model of excess income distribution in this paper is based on the actual situation.