Research On Prediction Of Mountain Two-lane Highway Accidents Based On Interactive Highway Safety Design Model

In recent years,the construction of road traffic technology and infrastructure has promoted the rapid growth of the national economy,and people have convenient transportation,but at the same time,road traffic accidents have occurred from time to time,which has a great impact on people's lives and safety.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct targeted management and improvement of the occurrence points of new roads and existing roads,and to improve China's road design through safety evaluation and management,reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents,and improve the level of road safety in China.This thesis first systematically analyzes the relationship between traffic accidents and geometric design of roads,and explores the safety performance of geometric design indicators for highways with two lanes in mountainous areas.Based on the traffic Accident Prediction Module(CPM)in the USA Interactive Highway Safety Design Model(IHSDM)software,the traffic accidents of the two-lane trunk road design indicators in the mountainous areas of China are carried out predictive analysis of statistics,statistics of the frequency of traffic accidents and the law of accident distribution.In order to further improve the evaluation accuracy of the IHSDM crash prediction model,three prediction accuracy evaluation indexes,Mean Prediction Bias phase(?),Mean Absolute Bias(?)and Pearson correlation coefficient(r)are introduced to explore the applicability of its accident safety prediction on the two-lane trunk highway in China.By collecting design data and historical accident data of eight typical two-lane trunk roads in the mountainous areas of southwestern China,IHSDM modeling and accident prediction results analysis were conducted.By comparing the IHSDM accident prediction results and related parameters with the actual number of accidents in each road segment,it was found The correlation between the predicted value of the IHSDM on specific road sections and the actual accident value is not high,and its average prediction deviation and average absolute deviation are relatively large.At this stage,the accident prediction model cannot be directly applied to Chinese roads.Finally,select 5 typical two-lane trunk roads in the mountainous area of southwest China,after a large amount of road design data and accident data analysis and processing,the IHSDM mountain two-lane accident prediction model was revised and verified by another three mountain double-lane trunk roads.Compared with the uncorrected IHSDM prediction model,the accident prediction correction model established by the research results improves the accuracy of accident prediction.It can relatively accurately predict the number of two-laneroad accidents in mountainous areas in China,and is used for road safety evaluation to optimize road design,improve China's road safety.