Research On Multi-level And Multi-mode Public Transit Emergency Evacuation Model And Strategy In Large Special Events

The emergency situation of large special events will lead to the increase of demand for short-term traffic evacuation around the venues,and the imbalance of traffic evacuation direction.The evacuation process has the characteristics of strong hazard derivation,complicated identity and destination characteristics of personnel to be evacuated.Due to the late start of the research on emergency evacuation in China,there are few key research results on the emergency evacuation of public transit in the context of large special events.The multi-level and multi-mode public transit emergency evacuation model and strategy proposed in this paper can not only enrich and improve the theoretical system of emergency evacuation for large special events in China,but also provide technical support for the emergency evacuation plan of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games.Firstly,this paper analyzes the characteristics of large special events and emergency evacuation to determine the types of events and the background of emergencies.And from the two aspects of large special event participants and audience demand forecast research and characteristics analysis,build a large special event audience emergency evacuation destination prediction model.Secondly,combined with the characteristics of emergency evacuation of large special events,this paper proposes a public transit-oriented emergency evacuation mode,which reflects the evacuation process through the evacuation accessibility of the evacuation personnel to the bus station in the evacuation destination area.Combining the characteristics of distance,time and transfer of public transit emergency evacuation,this paper constructs the accessibility model of public transit emergency evacuation from the two perspectives of transfer restriction and global accessibility.And combined with Arc GIS software and Python software,the model solving algorithm is studied,and the evaluation system is built to calculate the comprehensive accessibility.Then,combined with the actual emergency evacuation scene,the paper puts forward the multi-level and multi-mode public transit emergency evacuation strategy,which takes the emergency location as the center to carry out the circle level differentiated management,and realizes the connection of each evacuation layer area by combining various modes of transportation such as walking,shuttle bus and urban conventional public transit.And the general design of emergency evacuation strategy is carried out from the aspects of evacuation demand prediction,gathering and distributing places selection,shuttle bus station selection,route selection,vehicle allocation and traffic organization management.Finally,taking the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games opening ceremony as an example,this paper determines the division of evacuation zones with the National Stadium as the center,and analyzes the emergency evacuation accessibility of 82 bus stops in the evacuation buffer zone.Combined with the actual situation of the National Stadium,the general design of the public transit emergency evacuation of the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games was determined.Make an overall analysis of the final evacuation plan to verify the feasibility and superiority of the scheme.The multi-level and multi-mode public transit emergency evacuation model and strategy proposed in this paper are scientific,reasonable and applicable.It has important theoretical and practical significance for improving the orderliness,safety and efficiency of evacuation in the case of large special events,and also has important reference value for other types of events and emergencies.