Research On Transformer Maintenance Strategy Based On Operating State And Life Cycle Cost

Power transformers play a vital role in the operation of the power grid.Abnormal operation of power transformers may cause catastrophic consequences.Therefore,the monitoring and maintenance of power transformers are very important to power companies;at the same time,when transformers are overhauled,there are often under-repairs,over-repairs,or early withdrawal from operation,often not linking the economics and reliability of transformer operation,Resulting in unnecessary resource consumption and even huge risks.Therefore,in order to formulate appropriate maintenance strategies for the transformer,to ensure the safe operation of the power grid.We need to consider the reliability and economy of transformer operation on the basis of transformer condition assessment.The work obtained in this article is as follows:(1)Transformer state assessment research based on adaptive fuzzy neural network;first use the interfacial tension of oil,moisture content of paper insulation and furfural content of oil,which are closely related to the aging of power transformer insulation system,first use adaptive neural fuzzy inference system Establish a transformer life prediction model to evaluate the correctness of the model,then combine oil chromatography analysis to establish comprehensive evaluation models of ANFIS-based insulation oil,paper insulation,and electrical criticality.Finally,jointly develop life prediction and develop ANFIS-based transformer condition assessment The model overcomes the effects of static rules and the experience of different experts,so as to obtain the health index of the transformer to evaluate the operating status of thetransformer.(2)Based on the improved transformer reliability model based on the improved GM(1,1);based on the original set of transformer failure rates,the improved GM(1,1)is used to predict the trend of the transformer failure rate changes,and the transformers are combined The relationship between health status,operating life,and failure rate is used to establish a transformer operation reliability model.At the same time,the impact on transformer failure rate under different maintenance methods is considered.(3)Transformer maintenance model based on reliability and economics;Establishing the life cycle cost management of the transformer,and calculating the initial investment cost,operating cost and maintenance cost,failure cost and disposal cost of the transformer,taking into account the different The financial value of time is improved by introducing inflation and discount rates.Then,within the scope of the reliable operation of the transformer,a transformer maintenance strategy based on the health index assessment and life-cycle cost management is established.It is verified by simulation experiments that the method is reasonable and feasible,and provides a new method for transformer maintenance.