Reliability Modeling Of Demand Response And Risk Decision Of Demand Response As Reserve

With the development of demand response theory and application potential,more and more attention has been paid to the reliability of demand response.This paper analyzes the factors that affect the reliability of demand response,and establishes a demand response reliability model to evaluate the demand response,which is conducive to the better application of demand response in the power market.To solve the uncertainty problem of central air conditioning load response in incentive demand response,the economic benefit and thermal comfort model of users after central air conditioning load participating in demand response is established to quantify users' feelings on economic benefit and thermal comfort.And then an optimization model of central air conditioning load response considering both user's economic benefit and thermal comfort is established to assess the reliability of central air conditioning load.Particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the optimization model to get the response time and the upper limit of user tolerance temperature,and then the response reliability of central air conditioning load is effectively evaluated.Finally,the influence of weight coefficient,the initial response temperature,compensation price and penalty price on load response reliability of central air conditioning is analyzed.To solve the decision-making problem of the demand response reserve scheme of power generation resources including wind power,photovoltaic power and conventional units,the economic benefit and risk degree evaluation model of the demand response reserve is established to quantify the economic benefit and risk degree of the reserve scheme.And the uncertainty of the demand response reserve is considered.The demand response reserve risk decision model considering the risk preference of the decision-maker is established.It can get the optimal scheme which accords with the decision-maker risk preference.A numerical example is given to evaluate the profit and loss and risk degree of demand response reserve scheme,and analyze the necessity of considering the uncertainty of demand response reserve.Finally verify the feasibility of the proposed decision-making method.